Final Texas vs LSU Prediction, Updated Odds & SEC Picks

• The Texas vs LSU odds have moved half a point toward the road side since the opener
• A total that climbed during the week sets up a number I want to attack in this SEC showdown
• Keep reading for my final Texas vs LSU prediction, updated odds and SEC picks, below

The Texas Longhorns visit the LSU Tigers tonight, with kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC from Tiger Stadium.

Texas arrives on a three-game winning streak, while LSU is trying to regroup after a 31-13 loss to Alabama. Here is my final Texas vs LSU prediction, with updated odds and my SEC picks.

Texas vs LSU Updated Odds

This clash of National Championship odds contenders opened LSU -4.5 with a total of 45.5 on November 8. By Friday afternoon, BetMGM was dealing LSU -4 and a total of 46.5.

The key takeaway from the Texas vs LSU odds is that both moves help me. I get the home side at a better number, and I get a full extra point on the Under.

You can compare these prices across the best college football betting apps before you lock anything in.

Final Final Texas vs LSU Prediction

Prediction: LSU to win and cover -4

My Texas vs LSU prediction starts with the LSU offense at home. The Tigers drove 90 yards for a go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter last week against Alabama, but ultimately fell short to the Tide. They could use another possession like that Saturday, especially if Texas brings pressure on obvious passing downs.

Sam Leavitt also led a 70-yard drive against Alabama that ended in a short field goal. Moving between the 20s wasn’t the issue. Finishing even one more of those drives is the difference between backing the Tigers to win and laying four points.

The problem is that Texas brings a much tougher defense into Death Valley. I expect long drives, a few stalled possessions in the red zone and a final score that lands well short of a shootout.

Texas has the quarterback to keep this close, so I am not forecasting a blowout. I see LSU pulling away late behind its home crowd and a couple of key third-down conversions.

Texas vs LSU SEC Picks

Pick 1: LSU -4 (-111)

• LSU -4 (-111 at BetMGM)

For my first Texas vs LSU pick, I am laying the points with LSU rather than touching the moneyline. The half-point drop from -4.5 to -4 matters, since it gives me a push on a four-point LSU win instead of a loss.

Against Alabama, LSU reached the red zone twice early but came away with only three points. On one of those trips, a fourth-down pass was batted down at the nine. I’m backing the Tigers to finish one more of those chances, rather than counting on the crowd to win the game for them.

Here is the real case against this pick. Texas just won 34-20 on the road at Missouri, where Arch Manning threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns at Missouri last week.

If Manning carries that form into his home state, the Longhorns can win outright. I still trust the LSU offense to do just enough at home, but this is a short number for a reason. Sign up with the BetMGM promo code today and get a bonus to use on this game.

Pick 2: Under 46.5 (-108)

• Under 46.5 (-108 at BetMGM)

This total opened at 45.5, and I am happy to take the extra point. Texas held Missouri to three conversions on 16 third downs. The Longhorns didn’t need to shut down every first-down play to keep drives from turning into touchdowns.

Texas also has 27 sacks. If the front four can hurry Leavitt without a blitz, Texas can keep extra defenders in coverage. That’s a better route to the Under than counting on Manning to have a bad night.

Neither quarterback has been at his best against strong defenses. Sacks, punts and field goals all point me to the Under, even with a market that has crept upward this week. You can track the latest movement on our college football odds page.

Pick 3: Dilin Jones Anytime TD (-128)

• Dilin Jones Anytime TD (-128 at BetMGM)

If LSU covers in a lower-scoring game, I expect the Tigers to lean on the ground game near the goal line. That points me to Dilin Jones, my favorite bet in the college football player props market for the Texas vs LSU matchup.

At -128, this is a fair price for a back who should get the short-yardage work in a game where every red-zone trip counts. Jones scored from five yards out against Alabama for LSU’s only touchdown. His price still needs to win more than 56% of the time to break even, so I wouldn’t chase it much higher.