The Best UEFA Nations League Picks Today – Saturday, Nov 14
By Miguel Alvim in Soccer News
Published:
- UEFA Nations League picks for Nov. 14: Best bets for all eight Matchday 5 games
- Norway (-426), Austria (-163), and Kosovo (-117) moneyline predictions, plus Hungary (+144)
- Portugal vs. Denmark Over 3.5 (+138) and Northern Ireland vs. Ukraine Under 1.5 (+156)
Matchday 5 of the UEFA Nations League continues on Saturday, November 14, with significant playoff implications and relegation battles across the board. Several marquee matchups feature heavy favorites looking to extend their winning streaks, while struggling teams fight to avoid relegation.
This preview covers the key storylines and best bets for all eight Nations League matches on Saturday. The table below lists the moneyline (ML), spread, and over/under odds for each match.
UEFA Nations League Matchday 5 Odds & Betting Lines
All odds are from Novig as of Nov. 14. Claim SBD’s NOVIG PROMO CODE.
The following table highlights my best bet for each of the eight matches.
Nations League Picks & Best Bets Today (Nov. 14)
Portugal vs. Denmark: Over 3.5 Goals (+138)
Portugal enters this matchup with a strong historical record against Denmark, having won three of their four previous meetings. This includes a 4-2 victory on October 1, 2026. Through four UEFA Nations League matches, Portugal has established itself as one of the competition’s most dangerous attacking teams. The team is averaging 2.25 goals per game and has a +5 goal differential, consistently looking to attack in transition.
Attacking players such as Joao Felix and Goncalo Ramos (three goals and one assist each) have led the charge, contributing both goals and assists in the final third. Meanwhile, Denmark has struggled defensively, conceding seven goals in four matches. Given Portugal’s attacking firepower and Denmark’s defensive struggles, Over 3.5 goals is an appealing betting option.
Poland Moneyline (-113) vs Romania
Backing Poland on the moneyline offers excellent value given its historical dominance over Romania. Poland has won all three previous meetings, with an aggregate score of 12-1. This includes a 6-0 victory over Romania on October 2, 2026.
Poland has a +3 goal differential this season, led by star striker Robert Lewandowski. The veteran forward has been particularly effective in front of goal, scoring three times in three appearances. Meanwhile, Romania has struggled defensively, conceding 13 goals in four matches and posting a -10 goal differential. Poland’s attacking efficiency should give it a good opportunity to secure another comfortable victory.
Northern Ireland vs. Ukraine: Under 1.5 Goals (+156)
This matchup offers an interesting opportunity in the totals market, particularly given both teams’ recent scoring records. Northern Ireland currently has the league’s best defensive record. The team has yet to concede a goal in four matches, although it has scored just four times.
Ukraine has struggled offensively, scoring just two goals in four matches. Although Northern Ireland defeated Ukraine 3-0 on October 2, 2026, it did so despite having just 34.0% of possession. Given Ukraine’s attacking struggles and Northern Ireland’s defensive strength, Under 1.5 goals at plus-money is an appealing betting option.
Kosovo Moneyline (-117) vs Israel
Kosovo is an appealing moneyline pick, particularly given its home advantage. The match takes place at Fadil Vokrri Stadium in Pristina, where Kosovo recorded a 1-0 victory over Israel in November 2023. Kosovo is unbeaten in three previous meetings with Israel, recording one win and two draws while generally controlling the midfield battle.
Israel has struggled in the UEFA Nations League this season, conceding seven goals in four matches while managing just 33 shots. Israel has also struggled defensively in the first half, conceding five goals before the break. Kosovo is well-positioned to exploit Israel’s defensive weaknesses, strike early, and secure a home victory.
Norway Moneyline (-426) vs Wales
Norway will be looking to capitalize on home-field advantage when they host Wales at Ullevaal Stadion. Despite losing their last three UEFA Nations League matches, the hosts have plenty of attacking talent to turn their campaign around. Erling Haaland remains their biggest threat in front of goal, while Martin Odegaard’s creativity in midfield gives them another important attacking dimension. Norway has conceded eight goals in four group matches, however, so improving defensively will be essential.
Wales has also struggled in the competition, losing three of their first four matches. Craig Bellamy’s side has scored just twice in those four games and will be without suspended defenders Ben Cabango and Sorba Thomas. With Norway playing at home and boasting considerably more firepower in attack, backing the hosts on the moneyline is the preferred option.
Hungary Moneyline (+144) vs Georgia
Hungary has a strong opportunity to secure another victory against Georgia after winning the reverse fixture 1-0 in October. The visitors have collected consecutive victories over Georgia and Ukraine, putting themselves in a strong position heading into Matchday 5. Hungary has also lost just once in their last eight matches across all competitions, highlighting their recent consistency.
Georgia, meanwhile, has struggled to make an impact offensively in this Nations League campaign, failing to score in any of their first four matches. Their task becomes even more difficult with star attacker Khvicha Kvaratskhelia sidelined through injury. With Hungary showing greater consistency and already having beaten Georgia this season, the visitors are an appealing moneyline pick at plus-money.
Austria Moneyline (-163) vs Republic of Ireland
Austria enters this matchup unbeaten through four UEFA Nations League matches, with two wins and two draws putting the team at the top of their group. Ralf Rangnick’s side has also been particularly strong at home, avoiding defeat in their last 14 matches as hosts across all competitions. Although Austria drew 2-2 with the Republic of Ireland in October, their attacking approach and home advantage make them a strong candidate to secure all three points.
The Republic of Ireland has shown some improvement recently, going unbeaten in their last three Nations League matches. Troy Parrott has been particularly influential, scoring four of the team’s six goals in the competition. However, Ireland has struggled on the road in the Nations League, winning just two of their 12 away matches in the tournament’s history. Austria’s impressive home record and greater consistency make the hosts the preferred moneyline selection.
Sweden Moneyline (-194) vs Bosnia-Herzegovina
Sweden has a strong opportunity to strengthen its position at the top of Group B4 when they host Bosnia-Herzegovina on Saturday. Graham Potter’s side is unbeaten through four Nations League matches, recording three wins and a draw to collect 10 points. Bosnia sits second with eight points after winning twice and drawing twice, making this a crucial matchup in the race for automatic promotion to League A.
Sweden also has an impressive home record, winning their last five Nations League matches on home soil. Viktor Gyökeres has been a major attacking threat, scoring in all four of Sweden’s group games as he looks to extend his Nations League scoring streak. Although the reverse fixture ended in a 1-1 draw, Sweden’s home advantage and consistent performances make the moneyline at -194 an appealing pick.
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With more than a decade of experience as a writer, editor, and content manager, Miguel has built a career creating engaging sports content for international audiences. He is multilingual journalist with a strong passion for numerous sports, especially soccer.
