Saturday NHL Player Props: Shots on Goal & Goalscorer Picks (Nov. 14)

• Winnipeg visits Chicago and Edmonton travels to Toronto on Saturday
• Leon Draisaitl has 18 goals in 20 games ahead of a visit to Toronto
• See below for my NHL prop picks, odds and a shots watchlist for Nov. 14

Saturday’s NHL schedule offers two different ways to play a shooter. In Chicago I want volume: every puck the goalie has to stop helps. In Toronto I’m backing a finisher who can cash on a single opportunity.

The headliner is in Toronto, where Connor McDavid, Draisaitl and the Edmonton Oilers visit Auston Matthews, William Nylander and the Maple Leafs. Elsewhere, Nikita Kucherov and the Tampa Bay Lightning host the Detroit Red Wings, while Kirill Kaprizov and the Minnesota Wild visit David Pastrnak and the Boston Bruins.

Here are my NHL player props for Saturday, plus the latest goal and shots odds for the stars in action.

NHL Player Props Odds for Saturday

Novig prices as of 2:14pm ET Friday, Nov. 13; subject to change.

The two offers are close in price, but they ask for very different things. Connor needs four official shots on net, whether they go in or not. A Draisaitl assist doesn’t help the second pick. He needs a goal of his own. The price next to each player is the cost of a share that pays $1 if the pick wins, before fees.

NHL Prop Pick #1: Kyle Connor Over 3.5 Shots on Goal vs Blackhawks

Connor has 85 shots in 20 games, an average of 4.25. The distribution matters more to me than the average: he has put four or more on net in 12 of those games. At 48.5¢ the price asks him to clear four less than half the time before fees. I’ll take that side against Chicago.

His last five show both sides of this bet. Connor fired eight shots against Montreal and seven against New Jersey. He also finished with just two against Vancouver. Remove those two biggest nights and the play still has a case: he landed on exactly four against both Tampa Bay and Dallas. Four pays just as well as eight.

I prefer shots to his goal market here. In the Tampa Bay game all four stayed out. That was enough to reward a shots bettor even though a goalscorer ticket lost. The risk in Chicago is an evening of blocked or missed attempts: neither counts, no matter how long Winnipeg has the puck.

NHL Prop Pick #2: Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goalscorer vs Maple Leafs

Draisaitl has 18 goals in 20 games. Eighteen goals does not mean 18 winning anytime bets: he scored in 12 separate games. That’s the figure I compare with an even-money offer. It leaves some room at 50¢ without asking him to maintain a goal-a-game pace.

His last five games tell the story. Draisaitl scored twice against the Rangers and twice against Vancouver, and added single goals against Anaheim and New Jersey. Philadelphia kept him off the scoresheet as a shooter despite four shots on goal. He still earned an assist that night, a useful reminder of exactly what this contract pays for.

A power play can give him a look without requiring Edmonton to dominate the whole game. At the other end of the scale, two goals are worth no more than one on an anytime ticket. That’s why I’m interested at this price and wouldn’t follow it up just because the Oilers have other dangerous scorers.

NHL Prop Watchlist: Brandon Hagel Shots on Goal vs Red Wings

Hagel has 76 shots in 19 games and has put at least three on net in 15 of them. He’s coming off six at Columbus and five at Buffalo, but he also went an entire game against Minnesota without registering one. I’m watching the 2.5 line for Detroit rather than counting Saturday as another automatic Over.

The distinction between 2.5 and 3.5 matters here: Hagel reached four shots in just nine of those 19 appearances. A different strike would change the case substantially. No matching Novig price was confirmed for Over 2.5, so the Lightning winger stays off my betting card until there’s a number to compare.