Florida vs Kentucky Prediction, Player Props & SEC Odds (Nov. 14)

• Florida expects a quarterback change for its road trip to Kroger Field
• Both SEC teams are looking to bounce back after losses last weekend
• See below for my Florida vs Kentucky prediction, player props and SEC odds

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Florida (5-4) visits Kentucky (7-2) on Saturday, Nov. 14, at 6:15pm ET on ESPN from Kroger Field in Lexington. Both teams are coming off losses, with Florida falling 23-7 to Oklahoma and Kentucky dropping its game at Tennessee.

Florida’s Nov. 12 game program lists Aaron Philo as the expected starter after Jones started the Oklahoma loss. Running back Jadan Baugh remains the centerpiece of the offense, with 836 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns on 160 carries, according to Florida’s official game notes.

That quarterback change shapes both the game markets and the prop board. I’ll break down my Florida vs Kentucky prediction, the player props I’m targeting and the SEC odds on Kalshi.

Florida vs Kentucky Prediction

My Florida vs Kentucky prediction is a Kentucky win at home. The biggest separator is ball security. Kentucky has turned the ball over just seven times for a +10 turnover differential, while Florida has 13 giveaways and a -3 differential.

Florida’s counter is red-zone finishing. The Gators convert 89.2% of their trips inside the 20 (33 of 37), while Kentucky sits at 82.5% (33 of 40). Florida also moves the chains more often, converting 41.6% of third downs to Kentucky’s 34.9%.

I would only buy Kentucky to win below 60¢, and Kalshi has the Wildcats at exactly 60¢. That leaves the prediction in place without a position. The Kentucky -2.5 contract at 54¢ is useful context, but I’m not taking a side on the spread.

Florida vs Kentucky Player Props

The player props are where I see the clearest angles in this matchup. These are targets with entry caps, not open positions. Each becomes playable only if NoVig posts the market at or below the price listed.

Florida vs Kentucky Player Prop #1: Jadan Baugh Over 80.5 Rushing Yards

Baugh is my top prop target. He averages 5.2 yards per carry, and his 14 rushing touchdowns show how heavily Florida leans on him near the goal line. With a new starter under center, I expect the Gators to keep feeding their most reliable runner.

Florida has 1,478 rushing yards this season, and Baugh accounts for more than half of that total. His 160 carries show the workload is already there, and at that usage, 81 yards is well within reach.

• Prop Target: Jadan Baugh Over 80.5 Rushing Yards, Consider only at 54¢ or lower if a matching NoVig market opens

Florida vs Kentucky Player Prop #2: Aaron Philo Over 194.5 Passing Yards

Florida has thrown for 2,127 yards this season and averages 400.6 total yards per game. The Gators’ 41.6% third-down rate keeps drives alive, which gives Philo the volume to reach 195 yards if he settles in as the starter.

• Prop Target: Aaron Philo Over 194.5 Passing Yards, Consider only at 53¢ or lower if a matching NoVig market opens

Florida vs Kentucky Player Prop #3: Kenny Minchey Under 220.5 Passing Yards

Kentucky converts just 34.9% of third downs (37 of 106), which limits snap volume and makes high yardage totals a steep climb. The Wildcats have 1,979 passing yards and a balanced 1,473 rushing yards, so Minchey doesn’t carry the offense alone.

• Prop Target: Kenny Minchey Under 220.5 Passing Yards, Consider only at 53¢ or lower if a matching NoVig market opens

Florida vs Kentucky SEC Odds

Kalshi prices as of Nov. 13, 1:41p.m. ET.

Kentucky at 60¢ implies about a 60% win probability, with Florida at 41¢. The -2.5 contract at 54¢ makes a Kentucky win by three or more slightly better than even. The market sees a close game, which is why the player props offer cleaner angles than the sides. Compare platforms in our college football betting apps guide.