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2025 Grammy Awards Odds Tracker: Billie Eilish & Sabrina Carpenter Top Favorites
Updated:
- See the odds for major awards fluctuate leading up to the 2025 Grammys, courtesy of Kalshi
- Billie Eilish and Beyoncé are neck-and-neck for Album of the Year, while Sabrina Carpenter’s Espresso loses ground in Record of the Year race
- See all the odds and trends for the top four categories at the 67th Grammy Awards below
The 67th annual Grammy Awards ceremony will take place on Sunday, February 2nd, 2025. The graphs below track the futures odds to win the major categories, using data from Kalshi, a federally regulated exchange where people can trade on the outcome of events.
Album of the Year Contenders
- [Feb 2] Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter gains significant momentum, narrowing the gap with Billie Eilish’s Hit Me Hard and Soft. Beyoncé’s implied chance rises to 39% (+17) while Eilish holds steady at 44% (+6).
- [Jan 20] With less than two weeks until the Grammy Awards, Billie Eilish’s Hit Me Hard and Soft remains the favorite at -117 odds (46% implied probability).
- [Dec 1] Billie Eilish opens as the favorite for Album of the Year with her acclaimed record Hit Me Hard and Soft.
Grammy Awards Album of the Year Odds
| Album | Odds | Implied Chance | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit Me Hard and Soft (Billie Eilish) | Yes 43¢ / No 60¢ | 44% | +6 |
| Cowboy Carter (Beyonce) | Yes 45¢ / No 62¢ | 39% | +17 |
| Brat (Charli XCX) | Yes 10¢ / No 91¢ | 10% | -11 |
| The Tortured Poets Department (Taylor Swift) | Yes 7¢ / No 94¢ | 7% | -2 |
| The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess (Chappell Roan) | Yes 6¢ / No 96¢ | 6% | +2 |
| Other Nominees | Yes 1¢ | \<1% | – |
Odds as of February 2nd, 2025 at Kalshi Sportsbook.
The Album of the Year race has turned into a nail-biter, with Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter surging to within striking distance of longtime favorite Billie Eilish. The market shows a clear two-horse race, with Charli XCX losing ground in third place.
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Kalshi is an online platform that allows users to trade on the outcomes of future events, similar to a stock market for event probabilities. The odds presented here for the Grammy Awards are based on the current trading prices on the Kalshi exchange, which reflect the market’s collective expectations about the likelihood of each nominee winning.
Billie Eilish aims for her second Album of the Year win after taking home the prize in 2020 for When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?. Her 2024 album Hit Me Hard and Soft is the odds-on favorite heading into Grammy night.
Past Album of the Year Winners
| Year | Winner |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Midnights (Taylor Swift) |
| 2023 | Harry’s House (Harry Styles) |
| 2022 | We Are (Jon Batiste) |
| 2021 | folklore (Taylor Swift) |
| 2020 | When We All Fall Asleep… (Billie Eilish) |
Best New Artist Contenders
- [Feb 2] Chappell Roan maintains a commanding lead in the Best New Artist race with a 73% implied chance (+3 trend). Sabrina Carpenter remains a distant second at 23% (+6).
- [Jan 20] Chappell Roan maintains her lead in the Best New Artist race with -163 odds (62% implied probability).
- [Dec 1] Chappell Roan opens as a strong favorite for Best New Artist.
Grammy Awards Best New Artist Odds
| Artist | Odds | Implied Chance | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chappell Roan | Yes 74¢ / No 29¢ | 73% | +3 |
| Sabrina Carpenter | Yes 23¢ / No 78¢ | 23% | +6 |
| Doechii | Yes 5¢ / No 96¢ | 5% | -2 |
| Other Nominees | Yes 1-2¢ | \<1% | – |
Singer-songwriter Chappell Roan leads the Best New Artist field as a convincing -173 favorite. The 25-year-old Missouri native broke through in 2024 with her debut album The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess.
Past Best New Artist Winners
| Year | Winner |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Victoria Monét |
| 2023 | Samara Joy |
| 2022 | Olivia Rodrigo |
| 2021 | Megan Thee Stallion |
| 2020 | Billie Eilish |
Song of the Year Contenders
- [Feb 2] Billie Eilish’s Birds of a Feather strengthens its position as the Song of the Year favorite with a 66% implied chance (+10 trend). Kendrick Lamar’s Not Like Us holds steady in second at 17% (-2).
- [Jan 20] Billie Eilish’s Birds of a Feather holds as a -133 favorite for Song of the Year.
- [Dec 1] Birds of a Feather by Billie Eilish opens as the Song of the Year favorite.
Grammy Awards Song of the Year Odds
| Song | Odds | Implied Chance | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birds of a Feather (Billie Eilish) | Yes 66¢ / No 35¢ | 66% | +10 |
| Not Like Us (Kendrick Lamar) | Yes 17¢ / No 84¢ | 17% | -2 |
| Die With a Smile (Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars) | Yes 9¢ / No 93¢ | 9% | -1 |
| Good Luck, Babe! (Chappell Roan) | Yes 7¢ / No 95¢ | 7% | +2 |
| Please Please Please (Sabrina Carpenter) | Yes 4¢ / No 99¢ | 4% | -2 |
| Other Nominees | Yes 1-4¢ | 1-3% | – |
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Billie Eilish’s Birds of a Feather is pulling away as the Song of the Year favorite, with the market giving it a 66% chance of winning. Most other contenders are either holding steady or trending slightly downward.
Billie Eilish aims to add to her Grammy collection, as she previously won this award in 2020 for Bad Guy.
Past Song of the Year Winners
| Year | Winner |
|---|---|
| 2024 | What Was I Made For? (Billie Eilish) |
| 2023 | Just Like That (Bonnie Raitt) |
| 2022 | Leave the Door Open (Silk Sonic) |
| 2021 | I Can’t Breathe (H.E.R.) |
| 2020 | Bad Guy (Billie Eilish) |
Record of the Year Contenders
- [Feb 2] Sabrina Carpenter’s Espresso sees its lead shrink in the Record of the Year race, with its implied chance dropping to 58% (-12 trend). Kendrick Lamar’s Not Like Us (+7) and The Beatles’ Now and Then (+8) make up ground.
- [Jan 20] Sabrina Carpenter’s Espresso is a heavy -186 favorite to win Record of the Year.
- [Dec 1] Espresso by Sabrina Carpenter opens as the clear Record of the Year favorite.
Grammy Award Record of the Year Odds
| Record | Odds | Implied Chance | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espresso (Sabrina Carpenter) | Yes 58¢ / No 43¢ | 58% | -12 |
| Not Like Us (Kendrick Lamar) | Yes 18¢ / No 83¢ | 18% | +7 |
| Now and Then (The Beatles) | Yes 18¢ / No 84¢ | 17% | +8 |
| Birds of a Feather (Billie Eilish) | Yes 8¢ / No 93¢ | 8% | -2 |
| Other Nominees | Yes 1-2¢ | \<1% | – |
Pop phenom Sabrina Carpenter is poised to win her first Grammy Award with Espresso, the runaway -186 favorite for Record of the Year. The infectious hit topped the Billboard Hot 100 for 10 weeks in 2024.
Past Record of the Year Winners
| Year | Winner |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Record of the Year (Miley Cyrus) |
| 2023 | About Damn Time (Lizzo) |
| 2022 | Leave the Door Open (Silk Sonic) |
| 2021 | Everything I Wanted (Billie Eilish) |
| 2020 | Bad Guy (Billie Eilish) |
Archived Grammy Awards odds: 2020
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Brady Trettenero
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
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