Upcoming Match-ups

AAF Week 4 Odds & Picks: Iron & Apollos Remain Unbeaten

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in AAF

Feb 28, 2019 · 12:28 PM PST

Week 4 in the Alliance of American Football league kicks off Saturday, March 2. Will the Orlando Apollos and Birmingham Iron remain undefeated? See the odds and our expert picks here.
  • Week 4 in the Alliance of American Football kicks off Saturday, March 2
  • Birmingham and Orlando look to keep undefeated streaks alive
  • See the spreads for all four AAF games on schedule this weekend

Nicknames of sports teams generally don’t hold a deeper meaning, but in the case of the Birmingham Iron, the handle hits it right on the nose.

One of two remaining unbeaten teams in the Alliance of American Football, the Iron have fashioned their perfect slate through a defense that is as solid and sturdy as . . .  well, iron.

Birmingham’s defense is holding the opposition to an average of seven points per game and have forced an AAF-best nine turnovers.

In their 28-12 Week 3 triumph over the Atlanta Legends, the Iron picked off Atlanta QB Matt Simms three times. The Legend managed to drive into the red zone five times, but the Iron only permitted them 12 points.

All new teams seek to come up with an identity to rally around, and it would appear that Birmingham’s AAF squad appears to have found theirs.

When it comes to minor pro football, Birmingham is an expert. The city’s had a team in the WFL (Americans) and USFL (Stallions), even the CFL (Barracudas).

The Iron seek to emulate the Americans, who won the 1974 World Bowl title.

Let’s break down the Week 4 AAF slate, based on odds provided by sportsbooks:

San Diego Fleet vs Memphis Express

Teams Moneyline Spread Total
San Diego Fleet n/a -6 (+120) O 41.5 (-110)
Memphis Express n/a +6 (-140) U 41.5 (-110)

*All odds taken 2/28

Kickoff: Sat, Mar 2 at 4pm EST

Relying on their own stout defense and the 1-2 punch of Ja’Quan Gardner and Terrell Watson at running back, the Fleet are 2-0 since a Week 1 loss to San Antonio.

Gardner has gone over 100 yards rushing two weeks in a row and scampered for three TDs.

There was big news in Memphis, where Express coach Mike Singletary has opted to bench his starting QB, former New York Jet Christian Hackenberg.

Memphis is 0-3. Behind backup Zach Mettenberger, who completed 9-of-12 passes for 120 yards and two touchdowns, the Express rallied and nearly upset unbeaten Orlando.

Pick: Express -6, Under 41.5

Orlando Apollos vs Salt Lake Stallions

Teams Moneyline Spread Total
Orlando Apollos n/a -4 (+105) O 43.5 (-110)
Salt Lake Stallions n/a +4 (-125) U 43.5 (-110)

Kickoff: Sat, Mar 2 at 8pm EST

While the Iron have fashioned a perfect slate by assembling a brick wall defense, it’s the so-called Sun-And-Gun attack of the Orlando Apollos that has the Steve Spurrier-coached club at 3-0.

When his passing game wasn’t working during their 21-17 win over Memphis in Week 3, Spurrier shifted his gameplan at halftime. He utilized QB Garrett Gilbert in more option sets, and the Apollos won by running the ball.

The early favorite for MVP, Gilbert leads the AAF with 827 passing yards and Apollos receivers Charles Johnson and Jalin Marshall are both in the top five in receiving yardage.

The 1-2 Stallions toppled the Arizona Hotshots from the ranks of the unbeaten last week and have looked like a different team since their Week 1 loss to the Hotshots, in which Salt Lake QB Josh Woodrum was injured.

Stallions RBs Joel Bouagnon and Branden Oliver both rank in the top seven in rushing yardage.

Salt Lake DE Karter Schult has an AAF-best four sacks and eight QB hits.

Pick: Apollos -4, Over 43.5

San Antonio Commanders vs Birmingham Iron

Teams Moneyline Spread Total
San Antonio Commanders n/a +7 (-110) O 39.5 (+100)
Bimrminhgam Iron n/a -7 (-110) U 39.5 (-120)

Kickoff: Sun, Mar 3 at 4pm EST

The 1-2 Commanders look to have a QB crisis on their hands. Even though starter Logan Woodside is second in the AAF in passing yardage, they opted to go to backup Marquise Williams late in their 31-11 Week 3 loss to San Diego and he was 4-of-4 for 21 yards and ran five times for 33 yards.

San Antonio has surrendered 68 points in successive losses.

The Iron offense is a puzzling bunch. RB Trent Richardson, a one-time NFL first-round draft pick, has rushed for a paltry 145 yards on 59 carries for a meager 2.5 yards per carry average, but he’s also rambled for six TDs.

Birmingham QB Luis Perez is fifth in passing yardage (596) but has yet to throw for a TD.

Pick: Iron -7, Under 39.5

Atlanta Legends vs Arizona Hotshots

Teams Moneyline Spread Total
Atlanta Legends n/a +13 (-105) O 42 (-110)
Arizona Hotshots n/a -13 (-115) U 42 (-110)

Kickoff: Sun, Mar 3 at 8pm EST

The Hotshots not only lost their first game of the season last week, they took an injury hit as well, with QB John Woolford (back), DB SaQuan Edwards (hamstring) and LB Stephen Johnson (hamstring) all going out.

Woolford’s replacement Trevor Knight struggled mightily.

Atlanta is the tire fire of the AAF, though, at 0-3 and with league-worsts in points allowed (92) and point differential (-62). The offense moves the ball, but can’t finish off drives.

Pick: Hotshots -13, Under 42

Author Image