Will Ronda Get the Armbar? Betting the Method of Victory for Rousey vs. Carano

• Women’s MMA Pioneers Ronda Rousey and Giana Carano set for Netflix main event
• Rousey last competed in 2016, while Carano last competed in 2009
• MVP MMA will be putting on its first event Saturday, get our breakdown of the main event

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In what has always been a dream bout in women’s MMA, Ronda Rousey will face off against Gina Carano this Saturday night in MVP MMA’s inaugural event, airing on Netflix.

These two pioneers of female MMA are considered two of the all-time greats in the sport, each a trail blazer during their time. Carano, 44, was truly one of the first breakout female MMA stars, as she competed for the inaugural Strikeforce Women’s Featherweight Championship in her last bout in August of 2009. She’s 7-1 with 3 knockouts and one submission victory. Rousey, 39, debuted in 2011, going on to claim the Strikeforce Women’s Bantamweight Championship, then the inaugural UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship. She is 12-2 in her pro career with nine wins by submission and three by knockout.

Rousey steps into Saturday’s fight as the heavy favorite, with her submission skills where oddsmakers expect her to prevail. Let’s get a closer look at this matchup, the odds, and the markets for how the bout will end.

Rousey vs. Carano Odds

Odds as of May 15, 2026 at BetMGM. Grab a BetMGM promo code for Saturday’s fights or browse UFC betting apps for more options.

It’s not surprising that sportsbooks are heavily backing Rousey. She comes into the fight having more recent competition, while also being more successful against arguably better competition than Carano.

Submission by Rousey being the favored outcome also makes sense. The Olympic judo bronze medalist has had no problem throwing around most of her opponents, then securing an armbar submission. In some cases, her throws have led to quick ground-and-pound TKO stoppages. Carano was more of a Muay Thai standup fighter that could also use grappling skills to control opponents on the ground.

A winner by decision have the longest odds, which makes sense. This will be a five-round bout, five-minutes per round. Carano’s longest bouts were just three, three-minute rounds, while Rousey has never had bout go to a decision. Of her 14 professional fights, 10 were ended in 66 seconds or less.

Kalshi Market Backs Rousey Submission

Along with support from the sportsbooks, Ronda Rousey winning by submission is the popular option among Kalshi prediction market users.

Rousey has stayed largely above 60% in this market, taking a slight dip last week before returning to the mark in the days leading up to the bout.

Those without legal sports betting in their state can look to Kalshi to get in on the MVP MMA fight card. New users can get a $10 bonus when they sign up with our promo code “DIME.”

Polymarket Odds Strongly For Rousey

Another top prediction market, Polymarket, lists Ronda Rousey with an 80% chance to win on Saturday night.

Markets for the fighters list Rousey at 82.6 cents, while Carano prices are 23.3 cents.

New users to Polymarket can use our promo code “DIME” to get a $50 bonus when you deposit $20. There, you can compare the two prediction markets to see which one gives you the best value for what you are looking to invest in.