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Expert Paul vs Tyson Prop Bets: ‘Problem Child’ via Decision

Brady Trettenero

By Brady Trettenero in Boxing

Published:


Nov 13, 2024; Irving, TX, USA; Jake Paul speaks to the media about his upcoming fight with Mike Tyson at The Pavilion at Toyota Music Factory. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
  • Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson prop bets are rolling in as we approach their highly anticipated fight on Friday night
  • Will this exhibition bout go the distance? How will it end? We break down the odds and best prop bets
  • Check out our expert Paul vs Tyson props predictions, odds and best bets, below

Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson prop bets are popping up left and right ahead of their clash this Friday, November 15th at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

The YouTuber-turned-boxer Paul was originally scheduled to face Tyson in July, but the fight was postponed due to Tyson suffering an ulcer flare-up. Now, the 58-year-old former heavyweight champion steps into the ring against the 27-year-old Paul in a sanctioned professional bout with modified rules.

The boxing betting odds favor Paul at around -210, with Tyson a +170 underdog. But digging into the prop betting market is where you’ll find the real value for Friday night. Let’s dive into our best Paul vs Tyson props and predictions for Friday’s heavyweight showdown.

Will Paul vs Tyson Go the Distance?

Goes the Distance Odds
Yes +155
No -190

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of November 14, 2024. Check out available DraftKings promos for Paul vs Tyson. The fight is not available for betting in the following states: PA, Vermont & Colorado. 

One of the most popular prop bets for any boxing match is whether the fight will go the full scheduled distance or end inside the limit. For this 8-round bout with two-minute rounds, oddsmakers favor an early finish, with “No” at -190.

However, I’m backing this fight to go the distance at appealing +155 odds. Despite his age, Tyson has taken this fight seriously and gotten himself into impressive shape. His legendary toughness and resolve should help him last the full 16 minutes.

On the other side, Paul has shown improvements in his boxing and the ability to adjust mid-fight. Look for him to utilize his youth, reach, and movement to stay on the outside and outbox Tyson en route to a decision win. Paul has gone eight rounds before and knows how to pace himself.

Prediction:

  • Fight Goes the Distance – Yes (+155)

Make sure to browse the best boxing sites for Paul vs Tyson before placing a bet.

Paul vs Tyson Method of Victory

Method of Victory Odds
Jake Paul by KO/TKO/DQ +150
Jake Paul by Decision +280
Mike Tyson by KO/TKO/DQ +250
Mike Tyson by Decision +1100
Draw +800

In line with my prediction of the fight going the distance, I like Jake Paul to win by decision at +280 (26.3% implied probability).

Paul’s youth, stamina, and technical boxing skills should enable him to outpoint Tyson over the 8 rounds. He’ll likely use his jab and footwork to control the pace and rack up points, while Tyson may struggle to cut off the ring and land consistently.

Even with the modified rules benefitting him, it’s a tall task to expect Tyson to stop a younger, taller, rangier opponent at this stage of his life. Paul is likely to avoid any dangerous exchanges and cruise to a points win.

Pick:

    • Jake Paul by Decision (+280)

 

Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson Round Betting

Jake Paul Wins in… Odds
Round 3 +1000
Round 4 +1000
Round 5 +1100
Round 6 +1200
Round 7 +1400
Round 8 +1600

With the expectation of a full-distance fight and decision win for Paul, I don’t have a strong lean on the round betting props. The odds are tempting for a late Paul stoppage, but I’ll stick with the fight going to the scorecards.

However, if you do think Paul stops Tyson late, the odds are worth sprinkling on. I could see a scenario where Tyson starts strong but fades down the stretch, allowing Paul to pour it on and force a late stoppage.

If you wanted to sprinkle a little on a late-rounds prop just in case, Paul in Round 8 at +1600 is probably the best value. But for me personally, I’m passing on the round betting in favor of the distance and method of victory props.

  • Sprinkle Bet: Paul in Round 8 (+1600)

Other Paul vs Tyson Props to Consider

One other prop bet caught my eye:

  • Jake Paul wins by unanimous decision (+320) – In line with my predicted outcome at even better odds than the standard decision prop
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Brady Trettenero
Brady Trettenero

Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor

Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.

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