Florida vs Tennessee Predictions, Picks & Player Props for SEC

• Florida is favored over Tennessee in the SEC Tournament final on Sunday, March 16
• The Gators have won five straight games, all against KenPom top-25 teams
• Below, see the Tennessee vs Florida predictions, picks, and player props

The red-hot Florida Gators (29-4, 14-4SEC, 25-8 ATS) head into the SEC Tournament title game as 5.5-point favorites over the Tennessee Volunteers (27-6, 12-6 SEC, 18-15 ATS). The Tennessee vs Florida spread opened at just 2.5 points last night before ballooning in the hours that followed. The SEC Tournament final will take place at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville at 1:00 pm ET on ESPN.

Florida vs Tennessee Prediction

• Florida -3.5 (-158) at Caesars

Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NCAAM betting record: 51-38 (+9.07 units). All wagers 1 unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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When the line was just Florida -2.5 last night, I was all over the Gators. Waking up and seeing it at 5.5,- while I’m not totally surprised – is much harder to stomach. The Florida moneyline went from -155 (a 60.78% implied win probability) all the way to -250 (a71.43% implied win probability). That’s a massive jump, and it happened in less than 12 hours without any notable injury news.

Tennessee is not only a phenomenal defensive team, rating third in the nation in defensive efficiency at KenPom, they also play at one of the slowest tempos in the nation (348th). Fewer possessions means fewer chances to grow a lead, and 5.5 is not an insignificant spread to cover. Of Tennessee’s six losses this season, four have come by five points or fewer.

One of those losses – by far the biggest of the season for the Vols – was a 30-point setback at these same Gators on Jan. 7. But UT wasn’t a great road team this season, at least not in true road games, going just 6-5 straight-up and 5-6 ATS. They were are a perfect 5-0 SU in neutral-site games and 4-1 against the spread.

The Gators, of course, have been equally good, actually better. After trouncing Alabama (104-82) in the SEC semifinals, Florida is now 6-0 straight-up in neutral-site games and have covered every game against the spread.

Hopefully you got the Gators at -2.5 last night, but if you’re just coming to this game on Sunday morning, my best bet for the outcome is Florida -3.5 at a -158 price at BetMGM. The Gators have risen to third-favorite in the March Madness championship odds, and they are my pick to win it all at this juncture. Their road to glory starts with an SEC Tournament title on Sunday, though I am not confident it will be a blowout against the defensively-stout Volunteers.

The Public’s Pick for Florida vs Tennessee

The college basketball public betting splits show the public all over the Gator moneyline. As of 11:30 am ET, i.e. 1.5 hours before tipoff, Florida is getting 82% of moneyline handle on 88% of the moneyline tickets.

The ATS splits are much narrower, but the public is still leaning Gators to cover. Florida is getting 54% of ATS handle, leaving 46% for the Volunteers.

The total shows a strong lean to the over, with 74% of O/U handle and 71% of O/U wagers on over 143.5 at the moment.

FLA vs TENN Player Props

Florida vs Tennessee player props from bet365 on March 16. Read SBD’s guide on March Madness betting strategy ahead of Selection Sunday.

A trio of players are tied for the highest point total on Sunday at 15.5 O/U, Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr (17.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.4 APG) and Tennessee’s Chaz Lanier (17.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.0 APG) and Zakai Zeigler (13.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 7.3 APG).

Zeigler, who finished fifth in the nation in assists per game, also has the highest assist prop at 6.5 O/U.

Florida big man Alex Condon (11.2 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 2.3 APG) has the highest rebound total on Sunday at 7.5.

Tennessee vs Florida Picks

• Walter Clayton Jr over 15.5 points (-120) at bet365
• Alex Condon over 7.5 rebounds (-110)

My best player prop bet today is Walter Clayton Jr to go over 15.5 points. Clayton has been the best player in the SEC Tournament, leading the Gators in scoring in each of their last three. He dropped 18 in the 95-81 quarterfinal win over Missouri, and then had 22 last night in the lopsided win over Alabama.

He’s was pedestrian in the first two games against Tennessee, scoring just seven points in Florida’s lopsided home win, and 10 in UT’s own lopsided home win, when the Gators were held to a season-low 44 points (64-44). But Clayton is a streaky player and there’s no denying that he’s hot right now. This 15.5-point O/U is well below his season average, and while the Tennessee defense merits a dip, this is too low for my liking.

My second prop pick is Alex Condon to go over 7.5 rebounds. He averages 7.9 and has had at least eight in four of his last five games. He grabbed 12 against UT when the Gators won in Gainesville. He was limited to just five when the Vols won the rematch, but he was also limited to just 22 minutes in a game where basically every Florida player looked hungover.