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Kansas vs Iowa State Odds, Predictions & Props to Target (Jan. 15)

Chris Amberley

By Chris Amberley in College Basketball

Published:


Curtis Jones celebrates with a teammate after a bucket.
Jan 4, 2025; Ames, Iowa, USA; Iowa State Cyclones guard Curtis Jones (5) reacts with guard Nate Heise (0) during the second half against the Baylor Bears at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
  • The #2 Iowa State Cyclones are 6.5-point favorites over the #9 Kansas Jayhawks tonight
  • The under is 14-1 in Jayhawks games this season
  • Check out the Kansas vs Iowa State odds, predictions and props, below

Big 12 heavyweights clash tonight as #9 Kansas (12-3, 3-1 Big 12) visits #2 Iowa State (14-1, 4-0 Big 12). The Cyclones’ top-2 ranking is the highest mark in program history, and online sportsbooks expect them to stay undefeated in conference play per the college basketball odds. Tipoff for this Big 12 showdown is scheduled for 7pm ET from Hilton Coliseum, in Ames, IA, with ESPN2 providing the broadcast coverage.

Kansas vs Iowa State Odds

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Kansas Jayhawks +6.5 (-110) +210 O 144 (-110)
Iowa State Cyclones -6.5 (-110) -250 U 144 (-110)

Iowa State is currently favored by 6.5-points, which is up a full point from the opener spread. The total sits at 144, a number we see value on as we’ll discuss.

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Kansas vs Iowa State Prediction

  • Under 144 (-110)

While the Cyclones have reached a new high ranking wise, the Jayhawks are down eight spots since the season began. Kanas was the preseason number one in the polls, which appeared justified after a 7-0 start.

Since then, they’ve posted an underwhelming 5-3 mark, and the step back can be attributed to a lack of offense. Hunter Dickinson, a Wooden Award odds contender, leads the team offensively, but is averaging his lowest point total since his freshman season.

Zeke Mayo, the team’s second leading scorer is also in the midst of a down season. Mayo is averaging only 14 points per game, four less than a season ago. He’s shooting just 46% from the field, and a career-low 36.8% from three.

Kansas has scored less than 70 points in half of their last eight contests, including just 54 points last time out versus Cincinnati. As a team, their outside shooting has been abysmal. They’re making just 33% of their 3’s this season, and only 26% in conference play. They rank 32nd in offensive efficiency this season, and 124th nationally in scoring.

They’ve salvaged their season with defense. The Jayhawks are fourth in defensive efficiency and first in Big 12 play. They rank 14th in defensive rebounding, and have yielded 62 or fewer points in six straight games.

Iowa State meanwhile, is experiencing a bit of a shift in identify. The Cyclones are once again a strong defensive unit, but this year their offense is exceeding expectations. Iowa State is sixth in offensive efficiency, and feature five players who average in double-figures. That group is led by Curtis Jones and Keshon Gilbert, with the former leading the nation with six 20+point games off the bench.

Defensively, they have three big bodies to throw at Dickinson, to make the senior’s life miserable. The Cyclones are ninth in defensive efficiency this season, 12th in turnover percentage and 15th in steals.

With two strong defenses squaring off, targeting under 144 points makes sense. The rest of the betting community agrees, as 86% of the early over/under tickets are on that side, as is 87% of the total handle.

We should be actively fading the Kansas offense until their efficiency improves. It’s a bit scary fading the Iowa State shooters, but they’ve yet to face a defense as stingy as the Jayhawks.

The trends also support the under, especially from the Kansas side. The Jayhawks are 14-1 in favor of the under this season, with each of their past 10 games falling short of the total. Eight of those 10 Kansas outings have failed to reach 140 points, while the under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two rivals.

Kansas vs Iowa State Props

  • Curtis Jones Under 18.5 Points

Switching over the player props market, we’re looking to bet the under on Jones’ point total. The line currently sits at 18.5, which is a full point more than he averages per outing.

Jones has routinely cleared this number versus inferior competition, thanks to efficient shooting numbers and by getting to the line. Those are two areas the Kansas defense excels at limiting.

The Jayhawks are holding enemy shooters to a 42.6% effective field goal percentage over 15 games. Only 12 teams yield a lower shooting percentage from 3, and Kansas is only permitting 16 trips to the charity stripe per outing.

Chris Amberley
Chris Amberley

Sports Writer

As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

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