Louisville vs Duke Prediction, Pick & Best Odds for ACC Title Game

• The #1 Duke Blue Devils are 6.5-point favorites over the #13 Louisville Cardinals in the ACC Tournament Championship
• The over/under total has jumped from 143.3 to 147.5, an unusually large four-point increase
• See the Louisville vs Duke prediction, pick & odds for tonight’s ACC matchup

The ACC Tournament comes to a close on Saturday as the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils (30-3, 19-1 ACC) clash with the second-seeded Louisville Cardinals (27-6, 18-2 ACC) in the championship game. The Blue Devils will be without star freshman Cooper Flagg, but the college basketball odds still favor Duke by 6.5 points.

Tip-off for this ACC title tilt is scheduled for 8:30pm ET at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC. ESPN will provide the television coverage.

Louisville vs Duke Prediction

With Flagg sidelined, I expect Louisville to keep this game competitive and potentially pull off the upset. The Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in the nation, having won 11 straight games and 21 of their last 22 overall. Per KenPom, Louisville boasts the nation’s 27th most efficient offense and pairs that with a top-25 defense that surrenders just 95.6 points per 100 possessions.

The Cardinals are led by senior guard Chucky Hepburn, who averages 16.4 points, 5.9 assists and 2.4 steals per game. Hepburn has been instrumental in Louisville’s ACC Tournament run, posting 20 points and 8 assists in the quarterfinals versus Stanford before tallying 12 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists and 6 steals in the semifinal win over Clemson.

Louisville’s supporting cast is also impressive, with three other players averaging double-figures scoring. Senior J’Vonne Hadley anchors the Cardinals’ frontcourt, averaging 12.1 points and a team-high 7.3 rebounds. The Cardinals play at a faster-adjusted tempo than Duke (69.1 possessions per game compared to 66.1 for the Blue Devils) and could exploit a thin Duke rotation missing Flagg and reserve big man Maliq Brown.

Even without Flagg, Duke still presents a formidable challenge. The Blue Devils rank 1st in KenPom’s overall ratings thanks to the nation’s 2nd most efficient offense (128.1 points per 100 possessions) and 4th stingiest defense (90.0). Freshman prodigy Kon Knueppel has capably stepped up in Flagg’s absence, pouring in 28 points in the quarterfinal win over Georgia Tech before posting 17 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists versus North Carolina.

However, the Tar Heels exposed some of Duke’s vulnerabilities without Flagg, storming back from a 24-point second half deficit and nearly pulling off the upset.

The Blue Devils also don’t have quite the same motivation as Louisville, having already secured the ACC regular season title and a likely No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament odds. I’m banking on the desperate Cardinals to rise to the occasion and at least keep this one within the spread.

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Louisville vs Duke Pick

• Louisville +6.5 (-110) at BetMGM

I’m taking the points with the streaking Cardinals in a game I expect to come down to the wire. Louisville has proven its mettle in close games, going 6-1 in ACC play in contests decided by 6 points or fewer. The Cardinals have also been money when catching points, covering the spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog.

With Flagg out, I don’t think Duke has the horses to pull away and win this one convincingly. The Blue Devils expended a ton of energy to hold off North Carolina in the semifinals and now have a short turnaround against a Louisville squad that will be playing with house money. At +6.5, I love the value on the Cardinals to make this ACC championship game a nail-biter.

Best Louisville vs Duke Odds

The total in the Louisville vs Duke odds has seen significant movement, jumping from the opening number of 143.5 all the way up to 147.5 at BetMGM. That’s an eye-catching four-point increase, especially considering Flagg’s absence figured to put a dent in Duke’s offensive output.

The spread has held steady at Duke -6.5, the same number the Blue Devils opened at. BetMGM is one of the only books that hasn’t brought this number down to an even 6, yet. The best price for Duke on the moneyline is -255 at FanDuel, while underdog bettors can get the Cardinals as long as +210 at MGM.

Louisville has been a strong team to back during their current hot streak, going 9-2 against the spread over their last 11 games. The Cardinals are also 3-0 ATS when coming off a straight up win as an underdog this season, prevailing by an average of 15.3 points per game in that spot.

Odds as of March 15 at March Madness betting apps. New BetMGM users can get a $1,500 first bet offer when signing up. Read our BetMGM review before registering.