UC San Diego vs Michigan Odds, Picks & Predictions (March 20)

• UC San Diego takes on Michigan in NCAA Tournament First Round action on Thursday night
• UC San Diego has 30 wins on the season while Dusty May’s Michigan team just won the Big 10 Tournament
• Get my UC San Diego vs Michigan predictions and picks, plus betting odds

The #12 UC San Diego Tritons (30-4, 27-7 ATS) go up against the #5 Michigan Wolverines (25-9, 16-18 ATS) in Denver, Colorado, on Thursday (10:00 pm ET). UC San Diego won its conference tournament with ease while Michigan battled their way to victory only to get a 5 seed in the South region. The winner will face the winner of Texas A&M/Yale. Both teams are riding a wave of momentum. UC San Diego went 18-4 ATS in conference while Michigan won three games in a row as an underdog to win their conference tournament. Bettors can watch Michigan battle UC San Diego on TBS. Now kindly, check out my UC San Diego vs Michigan picks and predictions, below.

UC San Diego vs Michigan Odds

Michigan is currently a 2.5-point favorite in the latest college basketball odds. The Wolverines are -120 on the moneyline at DraftKings with the Tritons holding around +142. The game total, as mentioned, is 142.5 with the under slightly favored at -112. 

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Odds as of March 20th at DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re new to wagering on the NCAA Tournament, read SBD’s guide How to Bet on March Madness.

Michigan Betting Trends

Michigan will come in with a chip on its shoulder (as a 5 seed) on Thursday. The Wolverines missed the tournament for two years. The team was ranked inside the Top 15 (14th in the AP on March 17th). Winning their conference tournament and beating three ranked opponents (as underdogs) did not move the needle with the NCAA selection committee. Maybe the sub .500 ATS record was a red flag.

Also, Michigan played a lot of close games in conference play. When one adds in the fact that they dropped four of their prior six contests prior to the conference tournament, there is a bit of trepidation. However, Dusty May has been here before. May guided Florida Atlantic to a Final Four appearance two years ago and a 35-4 record. May lifted a Michigan program off the mat from 8 wins to 25 this season.

The Wolverines getting “rewarded” by going up against a 30-win team with a pedigree like UC San Diego is going to stir their bonnet rather quickly along with a 10:00 pm ET Round 1 start. 

UC San Diego Betting Trends

The UC San Diego Tritons come in with little pressure and racked up covering spreads. Unlike Michigan, they beat the spread 27 out of 34 times this season en route to a 30-4 record. UC San Diego went 18-2 in conference and breezed through the Big West Conference Tournament. The Tritons won their games by 18 and 14 points.

The Tritons hold opponents to 61.6 points per game (6th in the nation). Also, they ranked number one in defensive rating at 91.4. Eric Olen’s squad is well coached and is led by swing forward Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones (19.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.7 apg). Along with Tyler McGhie (16.4 ppg), the Tritons feature four players who can score in double figures while keeping pace down. (65.7 adjusted tempo ranks 271st).

Additionally, adjusted rankings change trends a little. For example, the Tritons rank 32nd when defensive rating is combined with comparing competition. Michigan’s number skyrockets to 13th from 72nd.

It is why this 5-12 matchup is very unusual. UC San Diego is 14-1 ATS with 4+ days off, 5-0 at a neutral site ATS, and not intimidated by anyone.  

UC San Diego vs Michigan Predictions

Now is the time for me to take some shots and make some predictions for what might be the game of the first round. UC San Diego has won 15 straight games and plays tournament style basketball all year. Michigan plays in the Big 10 where physicality is the name of the game (see games against Wisconsin and Nebraska). The big part is foul trouble. If Michigan stays out of foul trouble with their bigs like Vladislav Golden and Dustin Wolf, they can wear down the Tritons and cover.

I like the under on Thursday night, and Michigan to get a few extra free throws to make the difference. Their size means everything here.

Pick 1: UC San Diego and Michigan Under 142.5 points (-112 at DraftKings)

Pick 2: Michigan -2.5 points (-108) at DraftKings

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