Yale vs Texas A&M Predictions, Picks & Odds
By Chris Amberley in College Basketball
Published:
- The Texas A&M Aggies are 7.5-point favorites over Yale in the South Region’s 4 vs 13 1st Round matchup
- A&M is 317th in effective field goal percentage and 240th in turnover percentage
- See my Yale vs Texas A&M predictions, picks and odds, below
I’m putting Texas A&M (22-10) on upset alert today in their 1st Round matchup with Yale (22-7). The 4 vs 13 South Region contest is one of the most interesting games on the slate, and I believe the Bulldogs are a very live dog despite what the latest college basketball odds show. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:25pm ET at Ball Arena, in Denver, CO, with TBS providing the broadcast coverage.
Yale vs Texas A&M Predictions (South Region 1st Round)
My predictions is that the Ivy League champs expose the Aggies weaknesses and limit their strengths. Yes, A&M had a fine season in the loaded SEC, but they have major flaws.
Let’s start on offense. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve likely heard the Aggies can’t shoot. That’s true, but let’s explore just how bad it is. A&M ranks 317th in effective field goal percentage. They’re 292nd from 2-point range, and 243rd in made threes. The Aggies rank 240th in turnover percentage, and 273rd in free throw percentage.
Despite these atrocious stats, they’re 44th in offensive efficiency. How you might ask? Because they dominate the offensive glass. A&M is number one in offensive rebounding percentage. They pull down 14 offensive boards per game, leading to a flurry of second chances. It doesn’t matter how poorly a team shoots, if you keep giving them extra chances eventually they’ll make you pay.
Yale vs Texas A&M Offensive Ranks
Against most teams that would create a ton of problems. Yale however, is equipped to keep the Aggies off the glass. The Bulldogs are 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage. They played two Tournament teams in their regular season schedule (Purdue and Akron), and held them to 5 and 7 offensive rebounds respectively.
That should put more pressure on the few reliable shooters A&M has. Don’t worry, Yale has an answer for them as well. Bez Mbeng is a three-time Ivy League defensive player of the year, and one of the country’s best perimeter defenders.
At the other end of the court, we must give the Aggies defense their flowers. A&M is seventh in defensive rating and 50th in scoring defense. They defend inside the arc extremely well, ranking 26th, but they can be had from the outside. The Aggies rank 308th in opponent three-point makes per game.
Yale’s offense meanwhile, is top-60 in the nation. They’re 41st in effective field goal percentage, and rank 13th in assist-to-turnover. Protect the ball, and knock down your open shots is a recipe for success against anyone.
Yale vs Texas A&M Picks
- Yale +7.5 (-115) at DraftKings
As you can see, it’s not hard to talk yourself into Yale keeping this game close. I’ll take the 7.5 points they’re catching as my best bet, but I’m also going to sprinkle a little action on the Bulldogs moneyline. They upset Auburn as a 13-seed last year, and things could get very interesting in the South Region of the March Madness bracket should they pull off this upset.
The Round of 32 matchup would be versus the winner of the 12 vs 5 game between UC San Diego and Michigan. The Tritons are considered a potential Cinderella this season, but regardless if it’s them or the Wolverines, the matchup is winnable. Back-to-back upsets for Yale would set up a potential rematch with the Tigers team they stunned last year.
Yale vs Texas A&M Odds
The most favorable odds we can get on Yale +7.5 is -108, while the best moneyline for the Bulldogs is +275. I don’t see much value on the 138.5 point total, but it’s worth noting the over has cashed in five of the Aggies last six games.
Per the college basketball public betting trends, A&M is 2-5 against the spread in their last seven contests. Yale meanwhile, is 2-1-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
