Air Force vs Army Prediction, Odds & Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy Picks

• Two service academies meet at Michie Stadium with the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy in focus
• Both run-first offenses average more than 340 rushing yards per game
• Read below for my Air Force vs Army prediction, odds and best angles

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Air Force travels to West Point to face Army on Saturday, Nov. 7, at 7:30 PM ET on CBS from Michie Stadium. Air Force enters off a competitive 35-26 win over UConn, while Army looks to bounce back from a 49-22 road loss at Memphis.

Air Force can claim the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy with a win after beating Navy 14-9. Army has won five of the last six meetings, including last season’s 20-17 game.

Let’s dive into Air Force vs Army.

Air Force vs Army Prediction

Army averages 32.9 points per game to Air Force’s 29.0. The separator is finishing drives: Army converts 92.9% of red-zone trips to Air Force’s 85.3%, and it has committed just four turnovers for a +1 differential. With possessions limited, those edges favor the Black Knights.

My projection puts Army’s win probability at 58%, below the 62¢ ask, so Army is my prediction, not a value buy at the current price. This is a price to monitor throughout the day or early in the game.

Air Force vs Army Stats Comparison

Army finishes drives better. Air Force sustains them longer, which shapes the angles below. Air Force is more likely to turn the football over, but when the operation is clean, the Falcons are a threshing machine of a football team.

Air Force vs Army Odds

Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy Picks

Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy Pick #1: Air Force +7.5

Air Force converts 51.7% of third downs and holds the ball for 37:13 per game, which limits Army’s possessions. The Falcons also hit 90.0% of their field goals to Army’s 77.8%. In a game decided by field position, getting more than a touchdown has real value.

Of Air Force’s two losses, the Falcons managed to beat this spread in their loss to North Dakota State. However, in a battle of academy schools, both teams have the same idea: chewing up time of possession and running the football. This often leads to close games and quick games.

• Spread pick: Air Force +7.5

Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy Pick #2: Over

Both teams average more than 340 rushing yards per game, and together they have run for 5,468 yards. Both teams average at least 29 points per game. Despite the continuously moving clock, I expect points to be scored in the bucket load anyways.

That said, Air Force vs Navy did end 14-9, so there is a hefty risk. Air Force has scored 30 points in five games this season. Army has done so three times, dropping 56 or more points twice.

I like the over in this game, but an alternate under is an enticing play for a big payout. If you expect a game script similar to Air Force vs Navy, you could take the total into the 20s for a massive payout.

• Total lean: Over 43.5

Quarterbacks to Watch

Air Force is coming off a week in week the Falcons completed zero passes. Howard Fisher was 0-for-2 and Kemper Hodges’ lone pass fell incomplete. Air Hodges (listed as a fullback) rushed for 200 yards and four touchdowns last week against UConn. If the Falcons sustain their typical 37-minute possession, he will see plenty of volume.

Army quarterback Cale Hellums drives a 32.9-point offense and is the Black Knights’ primary red-zone weapon. He leads the country with a whopping 17 rushing touchdowns in just eight games. His magnum opus was a five-touchdown outing against FAU on October 17.

Army and Air Force are last and second-to-last in pass attempts per game, representing two of the three schools that average under 100 passing yards per game (along with Rice).

Compare prices across the best college football betting apps before kickoff.