Friday CFB Predictions & Best Bets for the Week 11 Slate (Nov. 13)
By Chris Amberley in College Football
Published:
- Three Friday night games headline the Week 11 college football slate
- Takeaways, third downs and a Senior Night spot shape my card
- See below for my Friday CFB predictions and best bets for Week 11 on Nov. 13
Friday night delivers three FBS matchups on the Week 11 schedule, starting with Florida State at Pitt at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. Illinois visits No. 4 UCLA at 9:05 p.m. ET on FOX, and No. 14 Houston closes the night at Colorado at 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
I priced all three games on Kalshi, where a contract’s Yes price doubles as its implied win probability. Below are my Friday CFB predictions and best bets for the Week 11 slate.
Friday CFB Predictions for the Week 11 Slate
Kalshi prices as of 6:03 p.m. ET on Nov. 12. Sign up with the Kalshi promo code and get a bonus to use tonight.
All three picks are favorites to win outright, so the question is whether each price leaves room. Pitt at 61¢ is the cheapest buy on the card, while UCLA and Houston need to win more than three of every four times to profit. Compare those numbers with the latest college football odds. On a 77¢ contract, a winner earns 23¢ before fees. One loss can erase the profit from three wins at that price.
Week 11 Friday College Football Best Bets
Florida State vs. Pittsburgh Prediction: Panthers Close Home Slate on Senior Night
Pitt plays its final home game of the season at Acrisure Stadium, with Senior Night adding emotion to the matchup. The Panthers arrive off a 34-11 win over Georgia Tech, holding the Yellow Jackets to 11 points before coming home for the finale.
Florida State is in transition. Rick Stockstill took over as interim head coach after the school fired Mike Norvell on Nov. 1, the day after a home loss to Clemson.
Kalshi prices Pitt at 61¢, a 61% implied probability. Sustaining drives and finishing in the red zone will be crucial for the Panthers to validate that market confidence. The Seminoles must disrupt Pitt’s offensive rhythm to flip this script. Before making any bet tonight scan the prediction market apps to find the best price.
- Pick: Pittsburgh to win (61¢ on Kalshi)
Illinois vs. UCLA Prediction: Bruins Stay Perfect at the Rose Bowl
UCLA is 9-0 and 6-0 in Big Ten play under first-year head coach Bob Chesney. It is the program’s fourth 9-0 start and first since 1998, and a win Friday would send the Bruins into their final two regular-season games unbeaten.
The defense drives my case for the Bruins. UCLA owns a +14 turnover margin and leads the nation with 27 takeaways, including 17 interceptions.
Illinois brings real resistance. The Illini have won four straight and allowed 19.3 points per game during that run, and Katin Houser threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 24-13 win over Nebraska.
Collin Dixon is the matchup to watch, with 12 receiving touchdowns, fourth in the nation. Still, an unbeaten home team with a national-best takeaway total justifies the 78¢ price, and a win keeps UCLA firmly in the College Football Playoff odds conversation.
- Pick: UCLA to win (78¢ on Kalshi)
Houston vs. Colorado Pick: Cougars Win in Boulder Behind Third-Down Efficiency
Houston enters at 7-2 and 4-2 in the Big 12, coming off a 31-24 win over Cincinnati. The Cougars average 35.4 points per game and convert 59.3% of their third downs, the best rate in the country.
Conner Weigman has completed 66.1% of his passes for 2,280 yards, 22 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Houston also runs for more than 200 yards per game, with Makhi Hughes (607 yards) and Re’Shaun Sanford II (573) sharing the load.
The clearest matchup edge is on the other side of the ball. Colorado (3-6) averages about 140 rushing yards per game, compared with Houston’s 203.5. That difference alone does not settle a matchup between two offenses, but Houston has a second route to winning if the passing game stalls.
Houston has finished at least plus-one in turnovers seven times in nine games. At a price that leaves little room for a mistake, I like backing the team that can end an opponent’s drive without giving up points. At 77¢, I’ll back the road favorite, but check the college football betting apps before locking in your wagers.
- Pick: Houston to win (77¢ on Kalshi)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
