Heisman Odds Week 1: A New QB Just Took Over the Board

• Miami QB Darian Mensah takes over as the Heisman favorite after a five-touchdown opener
• CJ Carr sits second on the board without having taken a snap yet
• Keep reading for the updated Heisman odds after Week 1, plus where the value is hiding

One weekend usually isn’t enough to flip a Heisman race. This one was.

Darian Mensah walked into his Miami debut on Friday night and put together the kind of box score that moves a betting board overnight. He’s now the outright favorite, and the two guys who opened the year at the top are both looking up at him.

What makes this board interesting is that Week 1 isn’t finished. A few contenders still have games left before the slate closes on Labor Day, so the Heisman Trophy odds you see below could look different by Tuesday.

Updated Heisman Odds After Week 1

Mensah’s +550 price carries a 15.4% implied probability, which is a healthy chunk of the board for a guy who was sitting around +1150 to +1200 in the preseason. That’s the biggest single move of opening weekend.

Behind him, the top of the market got a little more crowded rather than clearer. Carr and Arch Manning both drifted, and four names are now bunched between +1400 and +1600.

Odds from BetMGM as of Sept. 5. Claim the BetMGM promo code for a bonus to use on Heisman futures. Apps like Kalshi are also worth a look.

Darian Mensah Steals the Heisman Spotlight

The Tulane and Duke transfer completed 27 of 30 passes for 401 yards and five touchdowns in a 45-6 beatdown of Stanford. No picks, and a 257.3 passer rating to go with it.

He had help. Malachi Toney went off for a school-record 233 receiving yards and three scores, which is why the sophomore target jumped from +3800 all the way to +1500. Miami came out of the weekend with the best quarterback-receiver pairing anyone put on the field.

The one wrinkle with a Mensah ticket is that Miami is a top-10 team but not a top favorite in the national championship odds. Voters tend to reward guys whose teams stay in the title conversation into December, so this bet needs the Canes to keep winning.

Risers and Fallers in the Heisman Odds

Plenty of quarterbacks had big Saturdays and still got worse prices. Arch Manning threw for 305 yards and four touchdowns in a 59-7 wipeout of Texas State and drifted from +800 to +900. Julian Sayin put up 320 yards in Ohio State’s 56-3 win over Ball State and went from +1200 out to +1400.

That’s what happens when someone else posts a five-touchdown game. Dante Moore threw for 378 in Oregon’s 34-27 escape against Boise State and still got pushed from around +1000 out to +1500.

Two guys did trim their numbers. Jayden Maiava (349 yards in a 39-0 shutout of Fresno State) and John Mateer (225 yards in Oklahoma’s 51-0 win over UTEP) both moved from +2500 to +2000. Josh Hoover threw for 231 in Indiana’s 52-16 win but got knocked back to +2200, and Gunner Stockton and Keelon Russell fell off the top tier entirely.

CJ Carr Can Still Shake Up the Board

Here’s the part bettors should sit on before firing. Carr is priced second at +800 and hasn’t played a down. Notre Dame faces Wisconsin at Lambeau Field on Sunday at 7:30 pm ET on NBC, and a big night there will send him right back to the front of the market.

Trinidad Chambliss gets his moment in the same window. Ole Miss meets Louisville in Nashville at 7:30 pm ET on ABC in the only ranked-versus-ranked game of the weekend, per the college football odds board. He entered the year with an SEC passing crown and no Week 1 stat line to point at yet.

Where the Heisman Value Sits After Week 1

Mensah at +550 is the wrong end of this board. That price already banked his ceiling off one game against Stanford, and we’re one weekend in.

Sam Leavitt is the number that won’t survive the morning. He sat at +2500 on a board built before LSU played, then ran for 113 yards and two scores in a 51-10 dismantling of Clemson, the worst loss of the Dabo Swinney era. DraftKings has already cut him to +1700.

Moore and Sayin are the other two worth watching. Both threw for over 300 yards and both got longer prices anyway, which is what happens when one guy hijacks the weekend.

Carr and Chambliss are the last two dominoes. Both play Sunday night, and how they look decides whether any of these prices hold into Week 2.