Heisman Odds After Week 8: Malachi Toney Surges, Smith Still Favored

• Malachi Toney jumped from +5000 to +350 in the Heisman odds after a record-setting Saturday
• Jeremiah Smith still leads the Heisman odds, but his number got longer during a bye
• See the updated Heisman odds after Week 8 below, plus my pick and the best price on it

The 2026 Heisman Trophy race tightened after Week 8, with Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith still the favorite and two Miami stars closing the gap. The Buckeyes had a bye, but Malachi Toney and Darian Mensah gave Heisman voters plenty to consider in the Hurricanes’ win over Pitt.

Toney surged in the Heisman odds after a record-setting receiving performance, while quarterback Mensah strengthened his case with another big passing day. Miami’s unbeaten season has put both players among the leading contenders, giving Smith a much smaller cushion at the top of the betting board.

Smith remains the player to catch, although his Heisman price has lengthened since last Sunday. Below, I break down the updated Heisman odds after Week 8, the biggest weekly moves and where I see the best value in the race.

Updated Heisman Odds After Week 8

Odds from BetMGM, as of late October 24 and converted from decimal. New customers can grab a BetMGM promo code before betting futures, and you can compare numbers across the best college football betting apps.

This is a three-man race in the Heisman odds now. Smith, Mensah and Toney all sit at +350 or shorter, and the next group is back at +2000.

Chambliss went +700 to +2000 after Ole Miss lost 34-27 at Texas, while Carr doubled from +1000 to +2000. Bachmeier also drifted sharply, from +4000 out to +15000.

Malachi Toney Surges in the Heisman Odds

Toney strengthened his Heisman case with 16 catches for 194 yards and three touchdowns in Miami’s 52-23 win over Pitt. The 16 receptions are a school record, and he crossed 2,000 career receiving yards in the process.

Put it next to the week before and he has 27 catches for 348 yards across two games. That is real production, but +350 is a completely different buy than +5000 was seven days ago.

In implied terms his number moved from roughly 2% to 22.2% before the book’s margin. The market is no longer treating him as a longshot.

Darian Mensah Strengthens His Heisman Case

Mensah’s Heisman odds moved from +400 to +300 after he went 31-of-37 for 387 yards and four touchdown passes in the same game. Miami is 7-0 and 5-0 in the ACC.

That is a modest shift next to Toney’s, which is the interesting part. Two players from one offense now sit second and third on the board, and they are going to keep splitting attention.

Miami goes to North Carolina on October 31, then to Notre Dame on November 7. That November trip gives both Heisman contenders another major opportunity to strengthen their cases.

Jeremiah Smith Remains the Heisman Favorite at +110

Smith’s Heisman odds moved from about -145 to +110, dropping his implied chance from about 59.2% to 47.6% during an idle week. Miami’s big Saturday and the news out of Columbus both landed in that window, so I’d be careful assigning the move to any one thing.

The quarterback situation is the real question. Julian Sayin is out indefinitely with a throwing arm injury, and Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair were both taking first-team reps with no starter named as of Friday.

That matters because a longer price is not automatically better value. A new quarterback could change how often Smith sees the ball, and Ohio State goes to USC on October 31 to find out.

My Heisman Pick After Week 8

• Jeremiah Smith to win the Heisman (39¢ on Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

Heisman Prediction

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Kalshi

Jeremiah Smith

39%

Predict

Kalshi’s Heisman market has Smith YES shares at 39 cents, down from 50 last Sunday, and a winning share pays a dollar. That implies about 39% before fees and works out to roughly +156, which is a better number than BetMGM’s +110.

I’m staying with him. Last week he caught four passes for 68 yards at Indiana, and one of them was a 38-yard fourth-down touchdown that decided a 19-15 win over a top-five team.

Miami has made this a real race and I’m not pretending otherwise. But I’d rather pay 39 cents on a player who produces in the biggest moments than chase a receiver who was 50 to 1 seven days ago.