Houston vs TCU Prediction, Props & Odds (Friday, Oct. 4)
By Darren Cooper in College Football
Updated: October 4, 2024 at 6:09 pm EDTPublished:
- Houston travels to TCU on Friday night football on October 4
- The Cougars have been shut out in each of their last two games. It’s the first time they’ve been blanked in back-to-back weeks since 1994
- Check out our prediction for Houston vs TCU and game prop odds and best bets below
TCU’s high-flying offense, led by quarterback Josh Hoover, hosts Houston Friday night in a Big 12 (old-school SWC) battle. The Horned Frogs are 3-2 overall, but 1-4 against the spread. Houston is 1-4 and 2-3 against the spread. All five of the Cougars’ games have hit the under.
TCU is now a 16.5-point home favorite, up from the opening line of 15.5-16.5. The total has seen a slight decrease, now sitting at 51, down from the initial 51.5.
That’s because the biggest storyline for the game is offense. Houston has been the worst offensive team in the nation for new coach Willie Fritz, averaging 10.4 points a game. Fritz had serious success at Georgia Southern and Tulane before taking over the Cougars this season.
TCU vs Houston Prediction and Picks
- TCU -16.5 (-112) at SGP
- Under 51 (-110) at SGP
We love the Horned Frogs in this one. They’re playing at home. It’s a Friday night, so it’s a short week for Houston. And we think they can cover the point spread pretty comfortably. The line movement suggests that bettors are also leaning towards TCU, pushing the spread up by a point.
While Houston has been a team without an O, the Horned Frogs have been lighting up the scoreboard. Hoover, just a sophomore, has thrown for 1,774 yards, the third most in the nation with 14 touchdowns. His top target is LSU transfer Jack Bech, who is second in the nation in receiving yards with 647.
WOWWW!
What a dime for the @TCUFootball TD 🎯 pic.twitter.com/saiyfk93In
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 15, 2024
The slight decrease in the total to 51 points reflects some skepticism about the overall scoring potential in this game. Listen, the cupboard was pretty bare when Fritz took over, but he’s yet to find a quarterback or an offensive system to fit the talent he has. Last week, the Cougars played two different quarterbacks: Donovan Smith threw for 71 yards and had a pick. Zeon Chriss threw for four yards and had a pick.
Smith has logged the bulk of the time behind center and has only accounted for six yards an attempt. That’s almost impossible to do in college football in 2024.
Houston vs TCU Props
Let’s break down our favorite game prop for TCU vs Houston:
Houston’s defense has been respectable, but no one has really stopped the TCU offense this season. TCU is averaging 38.6 points a game, which is 21st in the nation. TCU spreads the field and runs the ball well, and always seems to have open wide receivers for Hoover to throw to.
Hoover is not a running threat, but he is a precise pocket passer. TCU lost two in a row before knocking off Kansas last week at Arrowhead. Look for the Horned Frogs to start fast and take a big lead into the halftime locker room.
- Prop Pick: TCU -9.5 at halftime (-110 at BetMGM)
Houston vs TCU Odds
| Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Cougars | +16.5 (-108) | +550 | O 51 (-110) |
| TCU Horned Frogs | -16.5 (-112) | N/A | U 51 (-110) |
Odds as of October 4, 2024, at DraftKings. See all the available DraftKings deposit methods to fund your DK account.
The point spread has seen some movement, increasing from the opening line of 15.5-16.5 to a solid 16.5 across most sportsbooks. This shift indicates growing confidence in TCU’s ability to cover. There is some variation on the moneyline. The best bet on TCU moneyline is currently available. If you’re believing in some more Friday night college football craziness (like Va Tech/Miami last week), the best moneyline bet on Houston moneyline is Caesars at -833.
Next stop: Fort Worth ✈️#GoCoogs pic.twitter.com/XvBMtpE3Kp
— Houston Football (@UHCougarFB) October 3, 2024
Two other game props are worth checking out, one is Houston under 9.5 points for the game at +425 at Bet365. Can Houston really be held scoreless or just to one touchdown? It’s conceivable. We also love the Yes at -260 for TCU to score three times unanswered at BetMGM.
These two teams played yearly back in the Southwest Conference days. The series is tied at 13 apiece. TCU has won the last nine meetings. The last time Houston won was in 1992.
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Darren has been covering sports since 1998 and the sports betting industry since PASPA made it official. His goal is to make the activity fun and exciting with insights and perspective. Enjoy.
