Louisville vs Washington Prediction, Pick & Line – Sun Bowl (Dec. 31)

• We’ve made our Louisville vs Washington prediction for the Sun Bowl on New Year’s Eve
• The Cardinals are slim 1-point favorites over the Huskies in El Paso
• Read below for Louisville vs Washington prediction, picks and betting lines

The Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl brings us an intriguing New Year’s Eve matchup, as the 8-4 Louisville Cardinals take on the 6-6 Washington Huskies. Kickoff for this cross-conference clash at the Sun Bowl in El Paso is set for 2:00 PM ET on CBS.

The Cardinals enter as slim 1-point favorites in a game expected to be tightly contested. The line has shifted drastically toward the Huskies following several key Louisville opt-outs.

Let’s dive into our Louidbille vs Washington prediction for the Sun Bowl on New Year’s Eve.

Louisville vs Washington Odds

Louisville opened as 4.5-point favorites but significant betting action on Washington has moved the line all the way down to Louisville -1. The odds imply a 52.4% probability of a Cardinals victory.

The razor-thin spread tells us what we need to know – Vegas sees this as a virtual toss-up, with Louisville’s stronger record going head-to-head against Washington’s late betting steam.

Oddsmakers are clearly factoring in Louisville’s depleted offense and Washington’s Jekyll-and-Hyde defense when projecting a relatively low-scoring affair.

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Cardinals Betting Analysis

Louisville’s promising campaign hit a speed bump when several key players opted out of the bowl game, including starting QB Tyler Shough and top target Ja’Corey Brooks.

Shough’s 3,195 passing yards and 23 TDs will be missed. The line movement in Washington’s favor reflects bettors’ skepticism that backup QB Harrison Bailey can maintain the Cardinals’ offensive output that ranked 9th nationally at 36.6 PPG.

Louisville Depth Chart for Sun Bowl. Harrison Bailey set to start for the Cards pic.twitter.com/V9qGrlhIIR

— Mark Blankenbaker (@UofLSheriff50) December 19, 2024

However, the Cards still have weapons. Dynamic freshman RB Isaac Brown racked up 1,074 rushing yards and 11 TDs. If Louisville pounds the rock, they might just feast on a Washington defense that’s been gashed for 158.1 rushing yards per game – good for a mediocre T-75th in the FBS.

Louisville was also opportunistic down the stretch, generating eight takeaways in season-ending wins over Pitt and Kentucky.

Huskies Betting Analysis

Washington stumbles into the postseason at 6-6 following a rocky first run through the Big Ten. After a promising start, the wheels came off during a 2-4 skid to close out the regular season, including an ugly 49-21 beatdown at the hands of Oregon.

However, bettors have latched onto the Huskies with the news of Louisville’s opt-outs, especially at QB. The CFB public betting trends show Washington getting 68% of the ATS money to cover +1.

Washington freshman QB Demond Williams Jr. warms up today at practice ahead of the @TonyTheTigerSB matchup against Louisville on Tuesday, Dec. 31.

Williams Jr. finished the season as the Huskies’ starting QB @600espnelpaso pic.twitter.com/EzCtJbf44T

— Adrian Broaddus (@AdrianBroaddus) December 27, 2024

Washington will start freshman Demond Williams Jr., whose mobility could stress a Louisville defense that is better against the pass (224.7 YPG, 75th) than the run (135.4 YPG, T-42nd).

The Huskies also have a 1,000-yard rusher in Jonah Coleman and a big-play receiver in Denzel Boston (807 yards, 9 TDs). If Williams provides a spark and the UW defense rebounds to early season form (13.2 PPG allowed first six games), the Huskies could pull the upset.

Louisville vs Washington Prediction

The betting market seems to think Louisville’s opt-outs – particularly Shough’s absence – wipe out their edge over Washington. The unknown of how the backup QB Bailey will perform has bettors flocking to UW and the points.

However, while Washington showed flashes, their inconsistency down the stretch is concerning. The Huskies were just 2-4 ATS in their last six, while Louisville went 3-2 ATS. The Cardinals also have the best player on the field in RB Isaac Brown.

In a tight matchup, l lean Louisville -1. The Cardinals still have a strong run game and generated momentum to end the year. It’s not my most confident Tuesday CFB pick, but if Louisville rides the emerging star Brown and generates a couple turnovers, they can cover the short number.

With backup QBs under center and both teams likely to lean on their ground games, a sprinkle on the Under 49.5 is also worth a play.

2024 Sun Bowl Picks:

• ATS Bet: Louisville -1 
• O/U Bet: Under 49.5 (-115)