Final Miami vs. Notre Dame Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (Nov. 7)

• No. 1 Miami brings an unbeaten record into South Bend on Saturday night
• A major Hurricanes injury has the market leaning hard toward the Fighting Irish
• Read below for our Miami vs. Notre Dame prediction and best bet

Undefeated Miami (8-0) visits Notre Dame (7-1) this evening, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Notre Dame Stadium. The Hurricanes are No. 1 in both the AP Poll and the College Football Playoff rankings. The Fighting Irish are No. 4 in the AP Poll but No. 11 in the CFP rankings.

Despite those rankings, Notre Dame is the clear favorite in the Miami vs Notre Dame odds. Miami lost star wide receiver Malachi Toney to an injury at Wednesday’s practice, and the Hurricanes must replace their leading receiver.

Below, we break down our prediction, the current Kalshi prices and why the No. 1 team in the country is worth backing as an underdog.

Miami vs. Notre Dame Prediction

Miami does not need to be the favorite for this bet to make sense. At 30¢, a Miami Yes contract implies about a 30% chance of a Hurricanes win. A winning contract pays $1, and Miami must win outright.

That is the key distinction. This is an upset pick, not a claim that Miami should be favored in South Bend. The question is whether an unbeaten team with one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country wins this game more than three times in 10. We think it does.

Darian Mensah has completed 188 of 233 passes for 2,425 yards with 25 touchdowns and one interception. Losing Toney hurts, but a passer completing better than 80% of his throws gives Miami a realistic path to winning a close game on the road.

Miami vs. Notre Dame Odds

Kalshi Yes buy prices as of Nov. 6 at about 1:04 p.m. ET. Prices can change before kickoff.

Notre Dame is a strong favorite at 71¢, while Miami sits at 30¢. The market also gives the Irish roughly a coin-flip chance to win by more than a touchdown, and the Over 54.5 is priced almost exactly at even. Prices can vary across platforms, so compare the top college football betting apps before locking in a position.

Miami vs Notre Dame Best Bet: Mensah Keeps the Upset in Play

Malachi Toney’s injury is the biggest storyline in this matchup. According to The Associated Press, he was hurt at Wednesday’s practice and had surgery Thursday. Miami hopes he can return this season, but no firm timetable has been set.

His absence is significant. Toney leads Miami with 73 catches for 1,027 yards and 13 touchdowns, and the 38-35 win over North Carolina came before the injury. The Hurricanes have not played a game without him yet.

Cooper Barkate is likely to see a bigger role in the passing game, and running back Mark Fletcher could take on a larger workload. Here is how the key Miami and Notre Dame playmakers compare:

Both quarterbacks have protected the football, with one interception apiece. The gap is in production. Mensah has thrown for 576 more yards and seven more touchdowns on just 11 more attempts than CJ Carr.

Notre Dame has earned its favorite status. The Irish are coming off a 35-13 win over Navy, routed Stanford 58-7 and have only a 28-24 loss to BYU on their record. Miami has answered every test so far, beating Pitt 52-23 and Clemson 41-13 while surviving Florida State 43-35 in double overtime.

Miami will need a clean game from Mensah and more from Barkate and Fletcher, and nothing is guaranteed in a hostile road environment. But at 30¢, the Hurricanes do not need to be the better team on paper. They only need to win this game more often than the price suggests, and an unbeaten team with an elite quarterback offers that upside.