Michigan State vs Notre Dame Odds, Prediction & Best Bets

• Michigan State vs Notre Dame brings two 2-0 teams together Saturday night
• The Michigan State vs Notre Dame odds have the Irish favored by 29 points in Week 3 of the college football season
• My Michigan State vs Notre Dame prediction has the Spartans covering the spread despite losing as heavy underdogs

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Michigan State visits Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, September 19, for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on NBC. Both teams are unbeaten, but the betting line suggests a substantial gap between them.

Notre Dame has outscored its first two opponents 93-13 behind an efficient start from quarterback CJ Carr. Michigan State counters with Cam Edwards’ production on the ground and an offense that has found ways to keep possessions alive.

My Michigan State vs Notre Dame prediction separates the likely winner from the better spread bet. The latest BetMGM odds are below, followed by my picks for the margin and total.

Odds | Prediction | Best bets

Michigan State vs Notre Dame Odds

Odds from BetMGM, subject to change. Check the current BetMGM offers.

Notre Dame needs a 30-point victory to cover -29, while a margin of exactly 29 would push either spread bet. Michigan State can lose by four touchdowns and still cover. That is a meaningful cushion even against an opponent that has opened with consecutive comfortable wins.

The total is 52.5, with the Under priced at -118. I am keeping the spread and total as separate bets. They share a similar expectation of how Michigan State can compete, but either can win without the other cashing.

Michigan State vs Notre Dame Prediction

• Spread pick: Michigan State +29 (-111, betMGM)
• Total pick: Under 52.5 (-118, betMGM)

I’m taking Michigan State +29 and Under 52.5. Edwards has rushed for 250 yards through the Spartans’ first two games. The Spartans need that running game to produce useful early-down gains rather than leave the offense facing repeated third-and-long situations. Staying on schedule would give them a better chance to keep Notre Dame’s offense off the field.

Alessio Milivojevic has completed 70.4% of his passes, giving Michigan State another way to extend possessions. The Spartans have converted 16 third downs and five fourth downs through two games. Those are conversion totals, rather than rates, but they show the offense has kept drives alive beyond its first series of downs.

That is the basis for taking the points. Michigan State does not have to match Notre Dame’s scoring to cover this number. A handful of sustained possessions and enough points to avoid falling out of reach would make a 29-point margin difficult for the Irish to clear.

Carr is the main threat to that approach. He has six touchdown passes without an interception this season and has thrown a touchdown in 14 consecutive games. If he produces quick scoring drives, Michigan State’s efforts to use time on its own possessions will matter less.

Notre Dame’s recent results against unranked Big Ten teams also favor the home side. The Irish are 7-0 straight up in those matchups over the past 10 seasons, averaging 44 points. That supports an outright Notre Dame win, but it is not an against-the-spread record and does not establish that this particular line is too small.

Michigan State vs Notre Dame Best Bets

• Spread pick: Michigan State +29 (-111, betMGM)
• Total pick: Under 52.5 (-118, betMGM)

I prefer Michigan State +29 because the number leaves room for Notre Dame to control the game without covering. Edwards and Milivojevic give the Spartans a plausible route to enough first downs and points to avoid a defeat by more than four touchdowns.

The Under is the secondary pick. Notre Dame has allowed only 13 points through two games, averaging a mere 6.5 points allowed per contest. That means Michigan State may need to earn its scoring chances through longer drives. If the Spartans can make those possessions count in time used, even modest offensive success could help keep the combined score below 53.