NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Predictions, Odds & Start Time at Bristol (Sep 19)
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- Rain erased practice and qualifying at Bristol, leaving two independent models to sort through a metric-set starting lineup.
- A 35/1 longshot headlines the card alongside two plus-money top-10 bets and three driver matchups.
- Below, see our NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race predictions, odds and start time at Bristol.
Bristol Motor Speedway usually gives us an entire afternoon to collect information. Practice reveals the long-run speed. Qualifying establishes track position. The garage provides rumors, excuses and at least one crew chief insisting the car is “pretty close” while his driver describes it as completely undriveable.
This week, we got rain. NASCAR canceled practice and qualifying, then used its metric to set the starting lineup. Kyle Larson inherited the pole, Joey Logano will start second and Denny Hamlin will roll off third.
The lack of track time creates plenty of uncertainty, which is generally how sportsbooks prefer us. Fortunately, we still have two independent models, a full set of comparable-track data and enough prices to keep everyone occupied until the green flag. Our card includes a longshot finishing-position ladder, two plus-money top-10 bets and three driver matchups where my model and Steve’s model reach the same conclusion.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race Odds at Bristol
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NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Predictions
- 0.1u – Bubba Wallace to win (+3500, BetRivers)
Wallace is our favorite longshot on Saturday’s board.
The best available price is +3500 at BetRivers. Shopping for the best number is always important with outright wagers, where even a modest difference between sportsbooks can have a significant effect on the long-term return. There is no reason to accept a shorter price when 35/1 is available. That is just math.
My model projects Wallace to finish 11.01. Steve’s model is more optimistic at 9.30, placing him eighth in its overall order. Those projections do not make Wallace the most likely winner, but a 35/1 ticket only requires a realistic route to the front.
Wallace starts 10th and arrives at Bristol in excellent form. He ranks inside the top 10 in both my last-three-race and last-five-race measurements, while Toyota remains the strongest manufacturer in my model this week.
His weighted comparable-track results include a 13.56 average running position and nearly 70% of his laps completed inside the top 15.
Bristol has 500 laps, heavy traffic and two lanes that occasionally become one without sending a calendar invitation. A well-timed caution could place Wallace within striking distance.
- 0.25u – Bubba Wallace top-five finish (+500, DraftKings)
The top-five wager provides the more forgiving portion of our Wallace ladder.
DraftKings is offering +500, which carries an implied probability of 16.7%. Wallace starts 10th, and Steve’s model places him eighth overall. My projection is slightly more conservative at 11.01, but his recent form and Toyota’s strength keep a top-five result firmly within range.
The outright ticket pays us if everything breaks perfectly. The top-five wager gives Wallace four additional parking spaces and considerably more room for one Bristol restart to become a community event.
- 0.75u – Tyler Reddick top-10 finish (+134, Kalshi)
Reddick will start 20th after the field was set by metric, but his underlying numbers place him much closer to the front.
My model projects Reddick to finish 9.76 and ranks him fifth in the power ratings. Steve’s model lands at 11.45. The projections sit on opposite sides of the top-10 cutoff, which makes the plus-money price important.
Kalshi is offering a +134 equivalent on Reddick to finish inside the top 10. That price implies a probability of approximately 42.7%.
Reddick’s weighted comparable-track results include a 12.72 average running position. My model also labels him as hot and identifies him as a track specialist based on his performance across the selected sample.
We have Reddick projected directly around the cutoff and are being paid plus money. That is enough to make the top-10 ticket attractive.
- 0.25u – Chase Elliott top-10 finish (+150, DraftKings)
Elliott offers another plus-money top-10 opportunity from deep in the field.
The No. 9 Chevrolet starts 27th, but my model projects Elliott to finish 10.80. Steve’s model has him at 11.81. Both projections land narrowly outside the top 10, although the +150 price gives us enough room to challenge that cutoff.
Across the weighted comparable-track sample, Elliott has a 12.86 average running position and has completed approximately 63% of his laps inside the top 15. He also averaged more than 51 laps led per race across the sample.
Moving from 27th to 10th at Bristol will require patience, speed and a pit crew that avoids turning every stop into an escape-room challenge. Elliott has the equipment to make that climb, and the +150 price accounts for the difficulty.
Best NASCAR Matchup Bets at Bristol
- 1.4u – Brad Keselowski over Chris Buescher (-140, theScore Bet)
This is the largest projection gap among the matchups where both models agree.
My model projects Keselowski to finish 12.92 and Buescher to finish 24.59, creating a difference of nearly 12 positions. Steve’s model is less extreme but still places Keselowski at 12.25 and Buescher at 16.36.
Keselowski starts 11th, while Buescher will begin the race from 23rd. Keselowski also owns the stronger recent-form profile and grades better across the weighted comparable-track sample.
Buescher enters the weekend ranked 18th in my power ratings and carries the weakest recent-form designation in the field. That’s “ice-cold” for those of you keeping score at home. The teammates have access to similar organizational resources, allowing the driver-level differences to carry more weight.
Both models favor Keselowski, and theScore Bet is asking us to lay only -140.
- Ross Chastain over Josh Berry (-130, bet365…-135, DraftKings)
Chastain owns another substantial advantage across both projections.
My model places Chastain at 15.04 and Berry at 21.98, a gap of nearly seven positions. Steve’s model produces almost the same separation, projecting Chastain at 12.55 and Berry at 19.17.
That agreement is particularly useful after practice and qualifying were canceled. Neither model has been influenced by a flashy five-lap average or a qualifying lap that lasted approximately half a commercial break.
Chastain starts seventh, while Berry will roll off 32nd. Berry’s recent form has improved considerably, but his weighted comparable-track results remain behind Chastain’s.
Berry has been one of the hottest drivers in the sport recently, so this is hardly a comfortable stroll. Bristol rarely provides those unless the race has ended and everyone is walking back to the hauler.
The model agreement makes Chastain worth the price.
- Kyle Larson over Ty Gibbs (-130, theScore Bet)
Larson starts from the pole and owns a clear projection advantage over Gibbs in both models.
My model projects Larson to finish 4.79 and Gibbs to finish 9.02. Steve’s model places Larson at 3.54 and Gibbs at 7.91. The separation is more than four positions in both systems.
Gibbs starts 13th and has plenty of Bristol speed in his profile. He won the spring race at Bristol, holding off Ryan Blaney and Larson in overtime for his first Cup Series victory. Larson finished third after leading 284 laps.
That spring result makes Gibbs a dangerous opponent, but both models still favor Larson by more than four positions Saturday night. Larson also begins 12 spots ahead of Gibbs and will open the race with clean air from the pole.
The market is giving Gibbs appropriate respect for his Bristol resume. At -130, Larson still owns enough of a projection and track-position advantage to warrant the wager.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race Start Time and How to Watch
The Bass Pro Shops Night Race begins Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on USA Network.
Larson leads the field to green from the pole for 500 laps at Bristol Motor Speedway, with Logano starting second and Hamlin third.
Compare numbers at the best online sportsbook options before the green flag at Bristol.
Follow SpeedwaySteve2 on JuiceReel for every play from every race. All selections sync to the profile as they are placed throughout the weekend.
Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
