Missouri vs Alabama Prediction, Pick & Updated Odds – CFB Week 9

• No. 21 Missouri takes on No. 15 Alabama in a pivotal SEC showdown
• The latest Bama vs Mizzou odds have the Crimson Tide as 16-point favorites
• Read below for Alabama vs Missouri prediction, latest odds and betting analysis

The No. 21 Missouri Tigers will clash with the No. 15 Alabama Crimson Tide in a huge SEC matchup on Saturday, October 26, at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET, with ABC broadcasting all the action.

The Bama vs Mizzou odds have been shifting towards the Tide, while sharp money is hammering the under. Both teams enter this matchup with their playoff aspirations hanging in the balance, as a loss could derail their chances of reaching the College Football Playoff.

Here is our Missouri vs Alabama prediction, along with a breakdown of the latest betting odds.

Missouri vs Alabama Prediction

Alabama’s defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed in recent weeks, as the Tide have allowed an average of 24.5 points in their last two contests. This could provide an opening for Missouri’s dynamic offense, led by quarterback Brady Cook.

Cook ranks sixth in the SEC in passing yards, while his leading target, Luther Burden III, has 37 receptions and four touchdowns. However, Cook’s participation Saturday is uncertain due to an ankle injury, which might severely impact Missouri’s offensive game plan.

Sources: Missouri quarterback Brady Cook (ankle) is expected to be upgraded to questionable and attempt to ramp up and play at Alabama on Saturday. He was in a boot when Missouri walked through Bryant-Denny Stadium on Friday. pic.twitter.com/IKeVHWegdr

— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) October 25, 2024

Alabama is a 17-point favorite despite recent upset losses to Vandy and Tennessee. The line movement from -14.5 to -16 indicates oddsmakers firmly believe Bama will rebound at home. However, there’s been sharp action on the Under, which has driven the game total down from 54.5 to 51.

The value on the Under 51.5 points is hard to ignore. Jalen Milroe’s reliance on Ryan Williams has limited Bama’s offense, as the 17-year-old accounts for nearly 40% of the team’s receiving yards and touchdowns. This lack of diversity could allow Missouri’s defense, which ranks seventh in the nation in success rate, to anticipate and limit big plays.

Rarely describe athletes as "graceful" but Ryan Williams is just different. pic.twitter.com/w08B1BuQIq

— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) October 5, 2024

Moreover, reports indicate Cook was “extremely limited” in practice participation. I’m not sure the QB will be fully prepared to handle Alabama’s defense, even if he does play. In his absence against Auburn, backup QB Drew Pyne completed only 47.6% of his passes. Missouri’s offensive rhythm just seems to be out of whack right now.

Considering the uncertainty around Cook’s injury, along with Alabama’s offensive inconsistencies, a lower-scoring game seems like the best bet. The sharps hammering the total down from 54.5 to 51.5 points further supports my pick of the Under.

Bama-Mizzou official predictions:

• Best Bet: Under 51.5 points
• Lean: Missouri +16 (given Alabama’s 0-3 ATS record in their last three games and Missouri’s potential to keep the game competitive)

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Updated Bama vs Mizzou Odds

Odds as of Oct. 25, at Bet365 Sportsbook. Check out the available sports betting sites for Bama vs Mizzou. While Missouri sports betting apps are not currently legal in the state, there is good reason to believe they will be up and running in time for the next college football season.

As of Friday night, Alabama is a 16-point favorite over Missouri. The moneyline odds are priced at Alabama -700 and Missouri +500. Alabama has an 88.9% chance of winning the game outright based on the odds, while Missouri’s chances stand at just 16.7%.

The significant move in the spread from -14.5 to -16 can be attributed to the uncertainty surrounding Missouri quarterback Brady Cook’s availability. Cook has thrown for 1,489 yards, 10 touchdowns, and six interceptions this season. Simply put, he’s a massive component of the Tigers’ offense.

If Cook cannot play or is limited in his effectiveness, Missouri could struggle to move the ball. Alabama’s defense, despite its recent lapses, still ranks 18th in the nation in total defense.

The total for the game has experienced a notable drop, falling from 54.5 to 51.5. This line movement indicates that sharp bettors expect a lower-scoring affair, likely due to the potential absence of Cook and Alabama’s offensive troubles.

H2H History

Alabama and Missouri have faced each other seven times since the Tigers joined the SEC in 2012. The Crimson Tide hold a dominant 5-2 advantage in the series, with all five of their wins coming in blowout fashion. Here’s a look at the recent head-to-head results:

While the H2H trends favor Alabama, the current Mizzou team has shown an ability to compete with top-tier opponents. The Tigers have kept games close against the likes of Georgia and South Carolina. I believe they have the potential to cover the spread or even push Alabama late in the game if Cook is healthy and able to play effectively.