Penn State vs Boise State Early Prediction & Odds for Fiesta Bowl

• The opening CFP quarterfinal (Fiesta Bowl) matchup features the sixth-seeded Penn State Nittany Lions against the 3rd-seeded Boise State Broncos on December 31st at State Farm Stadium at 7:30 pm ET on ESPN.
• The Nittany Lions are an 11.5-point favorite to advance again.
• We have an early preview of Penn State vs Boise State, including our first predictions, and more.

Warm weather and a festive atmosphere is likely for the College Football Playoff matchup between Penn State (12-2, 7-7 ATS) and Boise State (12-1, 6-6 ATS). Penn State is 2-3 ATS against Top 25 teams, while Boise State is 2-0.

Boise State has gone to two straight bowl games (lost the LA Bowl, won the Frisco Bowl). Penn State lost two of their three previous bowl appearances but come off a rousing playoff win over SMU.

Boise State has gone undefeated in MWC play in four of the past six seasons. Penn State playing in the second season already could prove beneficial on New Year’s Eve night.

We check out the early odds and make an early prediction or two for this tilt.

Penn State vs Boise State Odds

Odds as of Dec. 21 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check the top DraftKings Sportsbook promos before making a bet on any college football playoff action. 

This is a solid early line for the playoff quarterfinal contest. Boise State has Ashton Jeanty and an underrated offense while Penn State has a size and power edge. The emphatic Penn State win over SMU is why Penn State is a 11.5-point favorite entering the game.

Against the spread, both teams are right at .500 which surprises experts and fans alike.

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The total is 53.5 at DraftKings and around the same number at BetMGM, FanDuel, and Caesars. Again, it is early. Expect some movement.

Beware those injuries and opt-outs. Penn State has been fortunate for the most part. Boise State has been relatively healthy among their key players as well.

Boise State: It Begins And Ends With Ashton Jeanty

The Boise State offensive attacks begins and ends with Ashton Jeanty. At times, Jeanty does put the football out there a bit too much. However, it rarely costs the Heisman runner-up. The Junior ran for a mind-boggling 2,497 yards and accounted for 30 touchdowns (28 rushing). Every time, Jeanty touches the ball, he averages 7.2 yards. While Spencer Danielson has enjoyed a mostly dream season, Boise State has had some rough patches.

The loss to Oregon drew notice to the potential of the Broncos. A road game against Wyoming showed some red flags. The one thing Boise State did was win. Defeating UNLV 21-7 in the Mountain West Championship game displayed their resolve. Jeanty racked up 209 yards and a touchdown including a huge 75-yard game-breaker.

ASHTON JEANTY DURDURULAMIYOR 😵‍💫

75-YARDA TOUCHDOWN 💨 pic.twitter.com/uO2yk5bsTT

— NFL Günlükleri (@NFLGunlukleri) December 7, 2024

Now, in any language, that is an electric play. Jeanty stretches defenses and forces team to put eight or nine men in the box. Still, it matters little it seems. The Boise State running back creates additional offense as teams have to respect the run too much. Now, can a Penn State team, who sometimes suffers from poor tackling, stay disciplined enough to simply wrap Jeanty up?

Penn State’s Thunder, Lightning & Allar

For James Franklin and Drew Allar, there are plenty of weapons. The much maligned defense came to play at home against SMU. Penn State weathered the best Kevin Jennings and SMU could muster. Even when the Mustangs made plays, the Nittany Lions seemed to have answers at the right time. From sacks, to pick-six turnovers, Penn State’s defense was dialed in from the opening snap.

Penn State almost got too aggressive at times early, but did mostly manage to keep things even-keeled. Then, the running of Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen, and Allar took over. Sure, there were some nice passing plays, but the key was the ground game.

Halftime thoughts from Penn State’s 28-0 halftime lead over SMU:

– “LBU” living up to its namesake (DeLuca, Rojas INTs)

– Running game keeping Penn State’s offense afloat

– In my opinion, decision-making from Franklin & Allar could be better

– I feel bad for Kevin Jennings

— Will Duerksen (@wdduerksen) December 21, 2024

Offensively, Penn State’s size then speed wore SMU down. The running game took a little while to get going, but both Allen and Singleton found the end zone. The key for the Nittany Lions is not to get cute. Let the run set up the pass.

The defense must stay vigilant with Jeanty. He will get his runs. Penn State must prevent the big plays from being too frequent of an occurrence.

Penn State vs Boise State Early Prediction

• Boise State +11.5 at DraftKings
• Over 53.5 at DraftKings

Boise State showed against a tough UNLV team that they can hunker down and play some defense. Penn State might be favored by a few too many points.

Now that Penn State has gotten their feet wet, can they slow down Jeanty enough and get their own offense in gear? Miscues will be key once again along with the aggression level of Penn State. Expect more offense here.