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Summer Box Office Odds: Will Sequels Continue to Rule?

Tom Cruise, Simon Pegg, Rebecca Ferguson and Ving Rhames in
Tom Cruise, Simon Pegg, Rebecca Ferguson and Ving Rhames in "Mission Impossible: Fallout" (Paramount Pictures)
  • The season for summer blockbusters is here, and this year looks to be dominated by sequels
  • Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is already crushing the overseas box office; will its June 22nd North American release see similar numbers?
  • Which summer sequel will be more successful: Fallen Kingdom or Mission Impossible: Fallout

The summer of sequels is officially upon us — or, more accurately, the summer of the franchise, but that just doesn’t have quite the same ring to it.

We have already seen the revival of the Ocean‘s franchise with female-led heist Ocean’s 8 (June 8th), and The Incredibles 2 (June 15th). Ocean’s 8 brought in $41.5 million in its opening weekend, while the second Incredibles smashed records this past weekend with a $180 million opening.

If these numbers are any indication of the strength of a sequel there could be some very good things in store for a few franchises over the next couple of months.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

The highly-anticipated Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom has already been stomping its way through overseas box offices for about a week now, bringing in a total of $370 million abroad.

It will have big footprints to fill during its domestic release on Friday, June 22nd, as its most recent predecessor, Jurassic World, brought in a record-setting $208.8 million in North America back in 2015.

How Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Will Fare Domestically Odds
O/U on Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom‘s opening weekend (domestic) $200.5 million
Odds Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is the highest grossing movie this summer (June 1 – August 31, 2018) 3/2
Odds Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom will beat Avengers: Infinity War at the box office (domestic) 50/1

Beating the box office numbers we saw earlier this year with Avengers: Infinity War is a tall order, but Fallen Kingdom has what it takes to be the blockbuster of the summer. Anticipation is high, from Jurassic Park and Jurassic World fans alike.

Nostalgia is a powerful tool. Combine it with well-written, well-paced action…and you’ve got a kingdom that’s here to stay.

Those who were fans when Jurassic Park originally came out are already sold; those who are newcomers to the franchise enjoyed what they got last time. And, all of us can look forward to the return of the internet’s golden child, Jeff Goldblum.

Nostalgia is a powerful tool. Combine it with well-written, well-paced action — not to mention Chris Pratt and Jeff Goldblum — and you’ve got a kingdom that’s here to stay.

Mission Impossible: Fallout

The longest-running franchise of all time — no extended breaks, no ‘reboots’ a la The Hulk — is back and, by the looks of it, stands to be the best yet.

It has been 22 years since Tom Cruise first graced our screens as spy extraordinaire, Ethan Hunt. Now, Cruise’s sixth turn as Ethan Hunt is here, with the July 26th release of Mission Impossible: Fallout. The trailers are flawless, action-packed teasers, and there should be no doubt in anyone’s mind that the 55-year old Cruise will deliver just as many — if not more — jaw-dropping stunts.

But, does Fallout have the chops to top the box office?

How Will Mission Impossible: Fallout Do at the Box Office? Odds
O/U on Mission Impossible: Fallout‘s opening weekend (domestic) $50 million
Odds Mission Impossible: Fallout is the top-earning film in franchise history (domestic) 9/1
Odds Mission Impossible: Fallout stays in theatres until September, 2018 15/1

Both Mission: Impossible and Mission: Impossible II were expected to do big things at the box office the summers they were released, and for the most part, they did. Once Mission: Impossible III was released, however, Tom Cruise was right in the midst of some bad publicity and the movie didn’t fare as well. Then, however, came Ghost Protocol, reviving both Cruise’s career and the franchise’s staying power.

Those are big shoes to fill for a fifth-in-line sequel. Despite theatrics and spotless trailers, Fallout has a long way to go before making history.

The film became Cruise’s biggest hit ever, with a whopping $692 million globally. Rogue Nation dipped a little from that, bringing in $682 million worldwide.

Those are big shoes to fill for a fifth-in-line sequel. Despite theatrics and spotless trailers, Fallout has a long way to go before making history.

Author Image

An unabashed interest in the lives of other people and all things pop culture makes analyzing the world of entertainment an easy fit for Kaela. One of SBD's resident experts since 2017, she keeps her finger on the pulse so you can feel confident, and have fun, making informed wagers.