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WWE NXT No Mercy 2023 Odds, Preview & Predictions

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by Graham "GSM" Matthews in Entertainment

Updated Sep 27, 2023 · 9:21 PM PDT

WWE NXT No Mercy 2023
On Friday WWE brought the smackdown to the Visalia Convention Center with its up-and-coming NXT batch of brawlers. Dsc 3190
  • WWE NXT No Mercy 2023 will take place on Saturday, September 30th, 2023
  • Carmelo Hayes and Ilja Dragunov will meet in a rematch for the NXT Championship
  • Who do betting odds favor emerging victorious in each bout? See odds, analysis, and our best bets below

WWE NXT’s latest live special No Mercy, emanating from Bakersfield, CA this Saturday, September 30th, will feature a stacked card complete with scores being settled and five championship fights.

Carmelo Hayes and Ilja Dragunov will run it back for the NXT Championship while Becky Lynch defends her NXT Women’s Championship against Tiffany Stratton in an Extreme Rules match against Tiffany Stratton. In other action, Baron Corbin and Bron Breakker will do battle.

Ahead of the anticipated event, let’s take a look at the favorites that are expected to emerge victorious at WWE NXT No Mercy 2023, according to our own betting odds and analysis.

WWE NXT No Mercy 2023 Odds

NXT Tag Team Championship Fatal 4-Way Match Odds
The Family (c) -900
The Creed Brothers +900
Los Lotharios +1900
OTM +1900
Singles Match Odds
Baron Corbin -150
Bron Breakker +100
NXT Heritage Cup Championship Odds
Noam Dar (c) -400
Butch +300
NXT North American Championship Odds
Dominik Mysterio (c) -400
Trick Williams +250
NXT Women’s Championship Extreme Rules Match Odds
Becky Lynch (c) -300
Tiffany Stratton +200
NXT Championship Odds
Carmelo Hayes (c) +400
Ilja Dragunov -600

Odds as of Sept. 27. Browse the top online sports betting sites.

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NXT Tag Team Championship Pick

This Fatal 4-Way tag team match involving The Creed Brothers, Los Lotharios, OTM and defending champs The Family was added to the event on Tuesday’s go-home episode. The Family captured the gold two months ago at The Great American Bash and have had only one successful defense since then.

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Thus, they’re the safe choice to retain on Saturday at -900 in the odds with one of the other teams eventually challenging The Family to a standard two-on-two matchup.

Corbin vs Breakker Prediction

Despite being the sole non-title match at No Mercy, this bout has the potential to be a fun, hard-hitting hoss fight considering the level of talent between the two. Breakker is clearly on his way out of NXT and has been racking up a lot of losses, but although he could use this win, Corbin has a slightly better chance at -150.

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The reason being that Von Wagner was last seen on NXT TV being brutally attacked by Breakker and it’d be logical for Wagner to return here costing the former NXT champion the victory.

NXT Heritage Cup Championship Best Bet

Butch came out on top in the NXT Global Heritage Invitational to earn this opportunity. Simultaneously, he’s a SmackDown Superstar, so unless WWE intends to have him pull double duty between NXT and the main roster for the foreseeable future, Noam Dar retaining his title here is virtually a lock.

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Of course, two main roster stars already hold gold in NXT, so it wouldn’t be completely out of the question for Butch to bring the belt to The Brawling Brutes, hence his +300 odds.

NXT North American Championship Pick

Dominik Mysterio has elevated the NXT North American Championship by defending it on all three brands the past two months. Trick Williams poses a legitimate threat to the title at +250, especially with Dominik’s arch-nemesis Dragon Lee serving as the special guest referee, but Mysterio must retain.

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Lee ultimately taking the title would make more sense, along with another loss for Williams adding to his growing frustration with his friend Carmelo Hayes.

NXT Women’s Championship Prediction

The Becky Lynch as NXT Women’s champion experiment has quickly proven to be a success if recent ratings are any indication. That’s why it’s looking likely that Lynch will beat Tiffany Stratton for a second time and maintain her possession of the prestigious prize, making Lynch the odds-on- favorite at -300.

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Lynch has many potential challengers waiting in the wings (including a soon-to-debut Jade Cargill) and it would be premature for her to lose the strap so soon.

NXT Championship Best Bet

Carmelo Hayes barely escaped his last war with Ilja Dragunov with his NXT Championship reign intact, but No Mercy will mark Dragunov’s official coronation. At -600, he’s the best bet to emerge as the new NXT champion.

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Trick Williams could factor into the finish by inadvertently (or potentially purposely) costing Hayes the win. Either way, for as remarkable of a run as Hayes has had, the dawning of the Dragunov era was always inevitable.


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