Euro Betting – Desperate Ireland Face Italy

Italy (+140) vs Republic of Ireland (+215), Draw (+198)

The Republic of Ireland (0-1-1, 1 pts) will be looking to sneak into the second round of Euro 2016, but they’ll need a victory against the Group E leader, Italy (2-0-0, 6 pts), this Wednesday at the Grand Stade Lille Métropole (3:00 PM Eastern).

With a single point through two matches, Ireland will be eliminated from the tournament with a loss or a draw. A win (and four total points) should see them survive; but even with a win, there’s still a chance that goal differential keeps them out of the knockout stage. (In total, 16 of 24 teams move on: the top-two finishers in each of the six groups, plus the four best third-place teams.)

Ireland drew against Sweden (1-1) in the first game despite dominating the play. Hopes were high heading into a clash with Belgium, but then disaster struck as the squad was crushed 3-0. That lopsided loss could prove costly if goal differential does come into play.

The Italians, on the other hand, have been perfect after two outings, beating both Belgium (2-0) and Sweden (1-0). They lack the big-name stars of squads past, but are playing a tremendous team game, especially on defense. Their offense, meanwhile, is looking more comfortable and getting more creative with every minute they spend together on the field.

Italy weren’t the favorite to win the group at the outset, but after upsetting Belgium, they have become one of the favorites to reach the last four. Coach Antonio Conte has been outstanding in his decision making; he has done everything in his power to put Italy in a position to succeed.

Since Ireland need the win, you might expect them to come out aggressive. But I fully expect Ireland to play the counter-attacking brand of soccer they know and love (and which was largely successful against the Swedes). Conte, whose team has already clinched top spot in the group, will likely field a more offensive lineup than the first two games. There’s no reason for the Italians not to press and see what their attackers can muster.

The last time Italy and Ireland met in a competitive fixture was during the 2012 Euro when Italy took a 2-0 win. They also met in a 2014 friendly that ended in a scoreless draw; that was the third draw in the last five between the sides.

Ireland will be the more motivated team, but Italy are in better form. I like the draw given that paradigm.

Pick: Draw (+198).

(Photo Credit: Michael Kranewitter CC BY-SA 3.0 at [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/at/deed.en], via Wikimedia Commons.)