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2018 Tour Championship Odds: Is Tiger Peaking at the Right Time?

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Updated Mar 30, 2020 · 6:35 PM PDT

Tiger Woods
Tiger Woods has his sights set on the Tour Championship title for his 1st victory since the 2013 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. [Released]
  • Will Tiger Woods finally break through for his 1st win in 5 years?
  • Who in the top 5 has the best chance to win the FedEx Cup?
  • See the odds and best value picks here

The culmination of the season long race for the FedEx Cup all boils down to this: The Tour Championship.

Only 30 golfers remain, with the current top five in points automatically winning the FedEx Cup should they leave East Lake victorious on Sunday.

Odds to Win the 2018 Tour Championship

Player Odds to win the 2018 Tour Championship
Rory McIlroy +900
Justin Rose +900
Dustin Johnson +900
Tiger Woods +1100
Justin Thomas +1200
Brooks Koepka +1400
Bryson DeChambeau +1800
Rickie Fowler +2000
Hideki Matsuyama +2000
Tony Finau +2200

*Odds taken on September 19th. Follow the link in the table to see odds for all 30 golfers.

Is Tiger Peaking at the Right Time?

Let’s start with Tiger Woods. It seems inevitable he’ll break through and win soon, having posted four top-six finishes in his last seven events.

Tiger has won once on this course (in six career attempts) to go along with three runner-up finishes. So he should have tremendous confidence at this venue, despite not playing it since 2013.

YouTube video

What should bolster his odds are East Lake’s greens, often some of the most undulating and fast on tour. Of note, when Tiger has struggled on the greens this year its primarily been on courses with slow dance floors.

Past 5 Tour Championship Winners

Winner Year
Xander Schauffele 2017
Rory McIlroy 2016
Jordan Spieth 2015
Billy Horschel 2014
Henrik Stenson 2013

Two of the previous five winners didn’t qualify for the elite 30-man field (Spieth, Stenson), so who currently in the top 5 has the best chance to bring home the hardware and the over $11.6M prize that goes with it? Let’s take a peek.

Current Top-5 Points Leaders

Rank Player Points # of Wins
1 Bryson DeChambeau 5,789 3
2 Justin Rose 4,391 2
3 Tony Finau 3,479 0
4 Dustin Johnson 3,425 3
5 Justin Thomas 3,327 3

DeChambeau won the first 2 legs of the playoffs, with Rose ascending to world #1, despite losing in a playoff to Keegan Bradley last tournament, and also finishing behind DeChambeau at the Dell Technologies Championship.

Tony Finau is tied with Dustin Johnson for the most top 10’s (11) this season despite going winless. DJ has been consistently disappointing in the last four times he’s teed it up: nothing better than 7th, nothing worse than 27th.

Ditto for JT: nothing worse than 24th, nothing better than 6th. The two are hardly in peak form, but still finishing in the money.

Rose and DeChambeau are by far the hottest players, and at +1800, how could you not love the quirky, dynamic DeChambeau to reign supreme?

Best Value Picks for the 2018 Tour Championship

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2800): he’s the defending champ, finished one shot out of playoff last event, tied for second at Open Championship and Players Championship, and tied for sixth at US Open this year.
  2. Paul Casey (+4500): he was the 54-hole leader at this tournament last year, fourth in 2016, and tied for fifth in 2015.
  3. Cameron Smith (+7000): finished tied for third and third place in first two playoff events, along with four other top five finishes this season.

Let’s hope this Tour Championship lives up to the billing of the greatest tournament ever contested, the 1996 Tour Championship!

2018 Tour Championship Best Bet

I’m passing on Tiger and the golfers currently in the top five FedEx points, and doubling-down on my value pick of Xander Schauffele (+2800). He will become the first back-to-back winner in the 32-year history of the Tour Championship.

And the payout is going to be excellent.

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