2020 Masters Sleepers and Longshot Picks
- The most prestigious golf tournament of the year tees off Thursday (Nov. 12) at Augusta National Golf Club, in Augusta, GA
- Rickie Fowler has finished 9th, 2nd and 11th in his past three trips to the Masters
- Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays
Masters week is finally here, and even though the current state of the world will prevent us from a traditional Augusta experience, it’s still going to be an amazing feeling to wake up Thursday morning and take in the beauty that is Augusta National Golf Club.
Carlos Ortiz continued the 2020-21 PGA Tour longshot trend by winning the Houston Open as a 130-1 sleeper before the tournament started, and we’ll be looking for our own diamond in the rough among the 92-man field.
Over the years, course history has been one of the strongest predictors for success at the Masters, as the unique course truly takes multiple appearances to feel comfortable at. Since the first two Masters in 1934 and 1935, Fuzzy Zoeller is the only golfer to win the event in his inaugural appearance.
2020 Masters Odds
| Golfer | Odds to Win | Top-10 Odds | Top-20 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rickie Fowler | +7000 | +500 | +200 |
| Paul Casey | +8000 | +550 | +225 |
| Lee Westwood | +10000 | +550 | +225 |
Odds taken Nov. 9th at DraftKings.
As such, we’re going to be leaning heavily on course history, as well as off-the-tee, approach and around the green play.
Approach play is crucial. #TheMasters pic.twitter.com/ViCSI4Axvq
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) November 9, 2020
One downside of the limited field is that oddsmakers have slashed top-10 and top-20 prices in the Masters odds. Last week for example, Sam Burns was a 100-1 longshot to win, and had +750 odds for a top-10 finish. This week however, Lee Westwood has the same outright odds as Burns did in Houston, but his top-10 price is much shorter at +550.
Rickie’s Course History Rock Solid
Our first longshot target is going to be Rickie Fowler, who has some of the best course history in the field over the past three years. He’s finished 9th, 2nd and 11th in his last three trips to Augusta, falling just a stroke short of a playoff in 2018.
Masters Wednesday
• 34 different Cowboys have made starts at The Masters.
• Bo Wininger had the first in 1953.
• Scott Verplank has the most at 15.
• Rickie Fowler's runner-up showing in 2018 is OSU's best finish.#okstate | #golfschool pic.twitter.com/15MCvtKCIg— OSU Cowboy Golf (@OSUCowboyGolf) April 8, 2020
Still searching for his first career Major victory, Fowler has come so close so many times. The 31-year-old owns 11 top-10 finishes at Majors, eight of which have been inside the top-five. He boasts one of the best short games on Tour, and has gained at least 7.1 total strokes (T2G, OTT, APP, ARG, P) on the field in four of his past five Masters appearances.
Pick: Rickie Fowler to win outright (+7000)
Can’t Quit Casey
I know at some point I’m going to have to quit Paul Casey but I just can’t seem to do it. His ball striking is just too good. Need proof? Check out his stats from the first two Majors of the season.
Paul Casey Strokes Gained – PGA Championship & US Open
| Event | T2G | OTT | APP | ARG | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Open | 8.2 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| PGA Championship | 12.2 | 2.9 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
Of course, he didn’t make enough putts to win either event, but if he strikes it that well this week, he’ll surely have a chance to claim the Green Jacket on Sunday.
Success at Augusta National is nothing new to Casey, as he’s he finished T-10 or better on five different occasions. He missed the cut in 2019, but his previous four visits resulted in 15th, 6th, 4th, and 6th place finishes.
Pick: Paul Casey top-10 finish (+550)
Westwood Still Brings It
Even at 47-years-old Lee Westwood is still finding a way to compete with today’s young guns. He finished 13th at the US Open in September, and has been crushing it overseas.
Fun @RotoWire golf factoid: Lee Westwood will play in his 84th career major at @TheMasters, moving to within three of Jay Haas' record for most major starts without a win at 87.
Westwood won't win this week – but he's had some very good Masters and another would not be a surprise— Len Hochberg ⛳ (@LenHochberg) November 9, 2020
He’s finished top-20 or better in six of his past eight starts, and won the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship against a solid field in January.
His course history at Augusta is elite, as he’s racked up six top-eight finishes, five of which have come in his last eight appearances.
Westwood is also checking the box in the key statistical categories we’re looking at, ranking 20th off-the-tee, 35th on approach, and 17th around the green since the PGA Tour season resumed in June.
Pick: Lee Westwood top-20 finish (+225)
Additional Sleeper Picks for 2020 Masters
- Jordan Spieth (+7000): Regardless of his form, he’s always hovering around the first page of the leaderboard at this event. In addition to winning in 2015, he’s racked up a 2nd, 3rd, 11th and 21st place finish at Augusta.
- Justin Rose (+8000): Has performed incredibly well over the years at the Masters, posting five top-10 finishes, including a pair of runner-ups.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
