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2021 PGA Championship Odds and Picks

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

May 17, 2021 · 5:11 AM PDT

Collin Morikawa
Collin Morikawa holds the Wanamaker Trophy after winning the PGA Championship golf tournament at TPC Harding Park in San Francisco, in this Sunday, Aug. 9, 2020, file photo. Morikawa tries to join Tiger Woods and Brooks Koepka as repeat winners in stroke play next week at the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu, File)
  • The 103rd PGA Championship from Kiawah Island, SC tees off Thursday, May 20th
  • Rory McIlroy is the +1100 favorite over Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm
  • We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious and provided the best value bets below

The second major of 2021 heads to Kiawah Island, South Carolina for the PGA Championship. This track was the host to the infamous ‘War by the Shore’ 1991 Ryder Cup and it recently hosted the 2012 version of the PGA, where Rory McIlroy blitzed the field to the tune of an eight stroke win. That was the largest margin of victory in the event’s history, but since then, there hasn’t been a win by more than three strokes in eight tournaments, with the last four won by two shots.

Coming off his 19th PGA Tour victory two weeks ago at the Wells Fargo Championship, McIlroy finds himself as the +1100 betting favorite to lift his first major championship hardware since 2014. Jordan Spieth, who could become the sixth man to win the career grand slam, is tied with Jon Rahm as the second co-favorites.

Defending champion Collin Morikawa will be among a field of 156 golfers vying for the ultimate prize in the deepest field of all the majors. Kiawah Island is a par 72 and has a scorecard yardage of 7,876 yards, making it the longest major venue in history, eclipsing the 2017 US Open at Erin Hills. The Pete Dye designed course is a visual beauty, but errant shots will be severely punished leading to a high variance of scoring possibilities.

2021 PGA Championship Odds

Golfers Odds at FanDuel
Rory McIlroy +1200
Jon Rahm +1500
Dustin Johnson +1800
Jordan Spieth +1800
Justin Thomas +1800
Bryson DeChambeau +1900
Xander Schauffele +2000
Viktor Hovland +2200
Collin Morikawa +3100
Daniel Berger +3200
Hideki Matsuyama +3300
Patrick Reed +3600
Tony Finau +4000
Webb Simpson +4200
Cameron Smith +4200
Brooks Koepka +4500
Patrick Cantlay +4500
Abraham Ancer +4700
Will Zalatoris +4700
Tyrrell Hatton +4900

Odds as of May 19th

Can Dustin Johnson Rebound?

By his incredibly lofty expectations, Dustin Johnson has been in something of a funk in his last six events. His best showing in that time frame has been a T-13th at the RBC Heritage, and it includes a missed cut at the Masters in his title defense. He also withdrew from last week’s AT&T Byron Nelson, citing knee discomfort. He has, however, been oh-so-close to capturing the Wanamaker Trophy the last two years at the PGA.

Dustin Johnson’s Best PGA Championship Finishes

Year Result
2019 2nd
2020 T-2nd
2010 T-5th
2015 T-7th
2013 T-8th
2009 T-10th

DJ is capable of battering a course at will, and his prodigious drives will help him immensely at lengthy Kiawah Island. In the last twelve rounds, he’s fifth in strokes gained off-the-tee and 15th in putting, so it’s not as if Johnson has been wildly off. Even though he hasn’t been up to his normal standards, grabbing him at odds longer than five other golfers (+1700) is incredibly enticing for the world #1 player.

Koepka Loves the PGA Championship

Another player who knows a thing or two about winning majors that has been injured is Brooks Koepka. His record at this championship has been spotless, having won in 2018 and 2019 to go along with a pair of other top-five results since 2015. He was also just two strokes behind entering the final day at the 2020 PGA before a tough Sunday dropped him down the board.

He’s missed two cuts since coming back from knee surgery, but like Johnson, he can turn on his game at a moment’s notice. He won earlier in the year in Phoenix and was T-2nd at the WGC-Workday Championship just three starts ago. His +3500 odds are at least doubled from what they would’ve been had he been playing better recently, but it’s hard to argue with a player who has won four majors since 2017.

Last Five PGA Championship Winners

Year Winner
2020 Collin Morikawa (2 shot win)
2019 Brooks Koepka (2 shot win)
2018 Brooks Koepka (2 shot win)
2017 Justin Thomas (2 shot win)
2016 Jimmy Walker (1 shot win)

2021 PGA Championship Best Value Picks

  1. Sam Burns (+6500): It’s hard to find a golfer coming into this tournament any hotter than Sam Burns. In his last three starts, he’s picked up a victory at the Valspar Championship, led after 54 holes at the AT&T Byron Nelson – where he finished runner-up – and also has a T-4 result. Sunday’s final round score of 70 was the first time he hasn’t shot in the 60’s in his last eleven rounds. He’s sixth in birdie average and 14th in SG: approaching the green this season.
  2. Marc Leishman (+6000): Six-time PGA Tour winner Marc Leishman always goes under the radar, and these odds are an indication of that. Just last month, he was an impressive T-5th at the Masters, then he followed that up with a victory at the Zurich Classic. He owns six career top-10’s in majors, most notably a playoff loss at the 2015 Open Championship. Back in 2012 when Kiawah Island was the venue, he had a solid T-27 showing.
  3. Charl Schwartzel (+10000): 2011 Masters champion Charl Schwartzel has been on a run of impressive events starting with a T-26 at the Masters in April. Since then, he’s been trending as a runner-up at the Zurich Classic, then T-21st and T-14th the next two weeks. He followed that up with a T-3rd this past Sunday at the AT&T Byron Nelson. A top 5/10 bet would produce great value for the South African.
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