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Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds, Expert Picks & Best Bets for 2024

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in Golf

Updated Mar 6, 2024 · 10:14 AM PST

Scottie Scheffler hitting a bunker shot
Mar 3, 2023; Orlando, Florida, USA; Scottie Scheffler hits from the bunker on the seventh hole during the second round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
  • A star-studded field heads to Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club in Orlando for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational
  • World #1 Scottie Scheffler and #2 Rory McIlroy are the top-two favorites to win
  • See the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds to win plus top-five and top-ten finish picks

A strong field heads to Orlando, FL, this week for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club, including nine of the top-ten players in the Official World Golf Rankings.

Scottie Scheffler (+650) and Rory McIlroy (+850), who finished T4 and T2, respectively, at the event last year, are the clear favorites in the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, while defending champion Kurt Kitayama is a +7000 longshot.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds 2024

Golfers Odds to Win Top Five Top Ten
Scottie Scheffler +650 +150 -140
Rory McIlroy +850 +190 -110
Viktor Hovland +1600 +360 +165
Xander Schauffele +1800 +360 +170
Patrick Cantlay +1800 +360 +170
Ludvig Aberg +1800 +400 +180
Jordan Spieth +2200 +450 +200
Collin Morikawa +2200 +450 +210
Tommy Fleetwood +2500 +500 +220
Sam Burns +2500 +550 +240
Justin Thomas +2500 +550 +250
Cameron Young +2500 +500 +240
Max Homa +2800 +550 +260
Matt Fitzpatrick +3000 +750 +360
Will Zalatoris +3500 +600 +280
Jason Day +3500 +650 +280
Byeong Hun An +4000 +650 +360
Min Woo Lee +4000 +850 +360
Hideki Matsuyama +4500 +800 +360
Jake Knapp +4500 +900 +400
Harris English +5000 +1000 +400
Corey Conners +5000 +1000 +400
Adam Scott +5000 +900 +400
Wyndham Clark +5500 +900 +450
Tom Kim +5500 +1000 +450
Keegan Bradley +5500 +1000 +450

World #4 Viktor Hovland (+1600), #5 Xander Schauffele (+1800), and #6 Patrick Cantlay (+1800) round out the top-five favorites at the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational. The only member of the top 10 in the OWGR who isn’t in attendance is #3 Jon Rahm.

Odds as of Feb. 26 at DraftKings. See the latest on the DraftKings app in North Carolina, which is set to launch March 11, 2024.

Shane Lowry came through for me last week at the Cognizant Classic, easily winning his head-to-head with Sungjae Im, who missed the cut, though my top-ten pick, Sepp Straka, missed the cut as well.

McIlroy Continues Mediocre Start to 2024

In his third PGA event of the year last week, McIlroy fired a -10 but only managed to finish T21 at the Cognizant Classic (formerly the Honda Classic) in Palm Beach. That marks three straight tournaments in which the world #2 has finished outside the top 20.

By comparison, world #1 Scheffler has played five tournaments in 2024 and has yet to finish worse that 17th. He recorded top-ten finishes at the Sentry (T5), the Pebble Beach Pro-Am (T6), the Phoenix Open (T3), and the Genesis Invitational (T10) two weeks ago.

YouTube video

Scheffler also won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2022 with a score of -5, narrowly edging Tyrrell Hatton, Viktor Hovland, and Billy Horschel, who all finished at -4.

Defending Champion Kitayama Has Made Five Straight Cuts

Currently ranked #37 in the world, 31-year-old Kitayama has started the 2024 PGA season by making the cut in five straight events. He only has one top-10 finish (T8 at the Phoenix Open) in that span, but he has hasn’t finished outside the top 40 either.  Dating back to the 2023 season, he’s made the cut in nine straight PGA events.

Last year was his first appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, so there isn’t any other course history to go on.

World #15 is another player with a strong recent history at the Bay Hill Club. Bradley finished T10 last year and T11 in 2022. Though he missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago, he had made the cut in eight straight tournaments previously and finished in the top 20 in four of those, including a T2 at the Sony Open in mid-January.

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Predictions

Comparing their recent form, I love Scheffler (-130) to beat McIlroy (+110) in their head-to-head matchup. He’s playing better at the moment and has an excellent history at the course. McIlroy, does, as well, finishing 13th or better in each of the last three editions and winning the tournament in 2018, but his 2024 PGA results just haven’t been there so far.

I am also going to back Kitayama and Bradley to put in more solid performances at the Bay Hill Club. The former is priced at -105 to finish in the top 30, while Bradley is -120.

Arnold Palmer Invitational picks:

  • Scottie Scheffler (-130) over Rory McIlroy
  • Kurt Kitayama top-30 finish (-105)
  • Keegan Bradley top-30 finish (-120)
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Sascha Paruk’s 2024 PGA Tour betting record:

  • Overall: 1-3 (-2.09 units)
  • Top-ten picks: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
  • H2H picks: 1-0 (+0.91 units)


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