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Cognizant Classic Odds, Picks and Best Bets for 2024 Tournament at PGA National Members Club

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in Golf

Updated Feb 27, 2024 · 11:06 AM PST

Rory McIlroy lines up a putt
February 3, 2024; Pebble Beach, California, USA; Rory McIlroy lines up his putt on the second hole during the third round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am golf tournament at Pebble Beach Golf Links. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
  • The PGA tour heads to PGA National Resort in Palm Beach, FL, for the 2024 Cognizant Classic this week
  • Previously known as the Honda Classic, Chris Kirk is the reigning champion, beating Eric Cole in a playoff last year
  • See the 2024 Cognizant Classic odds to win, plus top-five and top-ten finish predictions and best bets

Coming off a win in the 2024 version of The Match, world no. 2 Rory McIlroy returns to PGA action this week at the 2024 Cognizant Classic at PGA National Resort in Palm Beach, Florida.

With only one other top-ten player (Matt Fitzpatrick) in the field, McIlroy is in a league of his own in the 2024 Cognizant Classic odds.

Cognizant Classic Odds 2024

Golfers Odds to Win Top Five Top Ten
Rory McIlroy +650 +190 +100
Cameron Young +2000 +500 +250
Russell Henley +2200 +500 +260
Matt Fitzpatrick +2500 +550 +280
Tom Kim +2800 +650 +320
Eric Cole +2800 +650 +320
Min Woo Lee +3000 +700 +330
JT Poston +3000 +700 +330
Byeong Hun An +3000 +700 +350
Sungjae Im +3500 +750 +360
Stephan Jaeger +3500 +800 +400
Shane Lowry +3500 +750 +360
Keith Mitchell +3500 +750 +360
Daniel Berger +3500 +750 +360
Corey Conners +3500 +850 +400
Chris Kirk +4000 +900 +400
Rasmus Hojgaard +4000 +900 +450
Sepp Straka +4500 +1000 +450
Matthieu Pavon +4500 +1000 +450
Adam Svensson +4500 +1000 +450
Luke List +5000 +1100 +500
Justin Rose +5000 +1100 +500
Jake Knapp +5000 +1100 +500
Beau Hossler +5000 +1000 +500
Alex Noren +5000 +1000 +450
Thorbjorn Olesen +5000 +1000 +450

At +650, Rory has a 13.3% implied win probability. Second-favorite Cameron Young is all the way back at +2000 with just a 4.76% implied win probability. The second-highest-ranked player in the field, Fitzpatrick, is fourth-favorite at +2500.

Odds as of Feb. 26 at DraftKings. See the latest on the DraftKings app in North Carolina, which is set to launch March 11, 2024.

I made two top-ten picks for last week’s Mexico Championship, both of which missed by a single stroke.

McIlroy Struggles Out of the Gate in 2024 PGA Events

McIlroy has played two PGA tournaments in the calendar year 2024. He finished T66 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb. 1 to 3) and T24 at The Genesis Invitational two weeks ago.

His results on the DP World Tour, however, have been impeccable. He fired an 18 under at the Dubai Invitational (Jan. 8 to 11), finishing T2 in a fairly strong 60-player field. The next week, he won the Hero Dubai Desert Classic at -14, besting the likes of Cameron Young (-12, third), Nicolai Hojgaard (-9, T7), and Tommy Fleetwood (-6, T14).

YouTube video

McIlroy hasn’t played this event (previously known as the Honda Classic) since 2018, when he finished T59 the cut with an ugly +9 score. He did win the tournament in 2012, though, and lost in a four-man playoff at PGA National in 2014.

Lowry, Straka Both Record Back-to-Back Top-Five Finishes at PGA National

Bettors looking for a “horse for the course” have two readily available options. Sepp Straka (#25 in the world) and Shane Lowry (#56) have both finished in the top five in each of the last two editions of the Honda Classic. Straka won the event in 2022 with a score of -10, besting second-place Lowry by a single stroke. The pair then finished T5 last year with identical -9 scores.

YouTube video

Straka has been hit and miss so far in 2024. He had a solid T12 result at the Sentry in his first event of the year and was T26 at Pebble Beach. But he missed the cut in his other two events (Farmers Insurance Open and The Genesis Invitational).

Lowry missed the cut as his first event of the season (The American Express), then finished T25 at the Farmers and T60 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Cognizant Classic Predictions

I don’t have a lot of faith in McIlroy at these wildly short prices. Yes, he’s won on this course before, but that was over a decade ago, and he didn’t play the Honda Classic each of the last five years.

Shane Lowry has been paired up with Sungjae Im in the head-to-head odds, with both listed at -110. Im finished T42 here last year and missed the cut at PGA National in 2022. After a strong-ish start to the season, the South Korean hasn’t finished better than T44 in his last four events with one missed cut thrown in.

Cognizant Classic picks:

  • Sepp Straka top-ten finish: +450
  • Shane Lowry (-110) over Sungjae Im
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Sascha Paruk’s 2024 PGA Tour betting record:

  • Overall: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
  • Top-ten picks: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
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