Friday NHL Props: Tkachuk Assists & Shots on Goal Picks (Oct. 30)

• I’ve lined up three Friday NHL props, with two Jets vs Panthers plays leading the card
• Winnipeg closes a back-to-back against Florida, three days after a 5-1 loss to the Panthers
• See below for my three Friday picks, target prices and the numbers behind each one

Friday gives us two matchups I want to attack on the prop board. Winnipeg plays in Tampa on Thursday, then turns around to face a Florida team that beat them 5-1 on Tuesday. In the other spot, New Jersey visits Vegas.

The starting goalies had not been confirmed when these picks were prepared. Vegas goalie Carter Hart returned to practice Thursday and hasn’t been ruled out, so keep an eye on crease news before puck drop.

My Friday NHL props are below, starting with a quick look at all three plays and the prices I’m targeting.

These are target lines and minimum acceptable prices, not confirmed sportsbook offers. Lines vary by sportsbook and can move, so check the latest NHL odds before you bet.

Friday NHL Props

I’m starting my Friday NHL props in Florida, where the Jets get a second look at the team that just handled them.

1. Jets vs Panthers: Matthew Tkachuk Over 0.5 Assists

• Matthew Tkachuk Over 0.5 Assists (target: -160 or better)

Tkachuk is feeding teammates at a pace the Panthers’ own site highlighted this week. He has 16 assists, four goals and 20 points in 13 games. That includes five assists against Columbus on Oct. 13, three against Seattle on Oct. 17 and four in Tuesday’s 5-1 win over Winnipeg.

He doesn’t need another big night here, just one helper. Tkachuk has at least one assist in seven of 13 games this season, and he’s done it in three of his last five.

That season rate works out to about 54%, a touch under the 61.5% implied by a -160 target, so I won’t pay more than that. The matchup closes the gap for me. He racked up four assists against this same Jets team on Tuesday, and Winnipeg is playing its second game in two nights.

2. Jets vs Panthers: Kyle Connor Over 3.5 Shots on Goal

• Kyle Connor Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (target: -115 or better)

I’m staying with the Jets for my second pick, and it’s built on volume. Connor put 52 shots on goal through his first 12 games, about 4.3 per night, with nine goals and three assists to go with it. Those numbers run through Oct. 27, before Thursday’s game in Tampa.

That average sits above the 3.5 line, but an average doesn’t promise four shots on any given night. Playing on back-to-back days adds some fatigue risk as well.

Still, Winnipeg needs its top goal scorer shooting after Tuesday’s 5-1 loss to this same Florida team. A -115 target works out to a 53.5% implied chance, and I wouldn’t go past that number.

3. Devils vs Golden Knights: Jack Hughes Over 3.5 Shots on Goal

• Jack Hughes Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (target: +120 or better)

Hughes has 47 shots on goal and 14 points through 13 games for New Jersey. That’s about 3.6 shots per game, so he’s sitting right on top of this number. Getting plus money gives us some cushion with an average that close to the line.

Vegas has allowed a power-play goal in six straight games, according to the team’s Oct. 29 preview. If the Devils can draw penalties, they should get extended time in the offensive zone, and Hughes is the player most likely to turn that into shots.

Wrapping up my Friday NHL props, I’m taking Hughes over 3.5 shots at +120 or better, about a 45.5% implied probability. Compare prices across the NHL betting apps, since this line could move once the goalies are confirmed.