NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 8: Expert is on a 5-1 ATS Run
By Zach Reger in NFL News
Published:
Week 8 of the 2026 NFL season is officially underway, and the NFL odds board is packed with value. The action kicked off Thursday, October 29, with the Green Bay Packers securing a 27–19 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Green Bay built a 20–10 halftime advantage and extended it to 27–13 entering the fourth quarter, holding off a late Carolina rally. With the win, the Packers sit atop the NFL ATS records with a flawless 5-0 mark against the spread over their last five games.
As I turn my attention to the Sunday and Monday slates, several fascinating situational spots catch my eye. Whether you need a quick cheat sheet for your betting card or a deep dive into the schematic advantages driving the best value plays, I have you covered. I am on a 5-1 run with my best against the spread picks over the last two weeks. Keep reading for my complete ATS predictions for every Week 8 matchup, followed by a breakdown of my three favorite spots.
NFL Week 8 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game
| Matchup | Spread | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Colts at Jaguars | Jaguars -10 | Jaguars -10 |
| Titans at Bengals | Bengals -12 | Bengals -12 |
| Browns at Steelers | Steelers -3.5 | Steelers -3.5 |
| Vikings at Lions | Lions -3.5 | Lions -3.5 |
| Falcons at Buccaneers | Buccaneers -2.5 | Falcons +2.5 |
| Cardinals at Cowboys | Cowboys -7 | Cardinals +7 |
| Raiders at Jets | Jets -1.5 | Jets -1.5 |
| Ravens at Bills | Bills -3 | Ravens +3 |
| Chargers at Rams | Rams -6.5 | Chargers +6.5 |
| Patriots at Dolphins | Patriots -7 | Dolphins +7 |
| Chiefs at Broncos | Chiefs -1.5 | Broncos +1.5 |
| Eagles at Commanders | Commanders -6 | Commanders -6 |
| Bears at Seahawks | Seahawks -3 | Bears +3 |
Odds are sourced from BetMGM and are current as of publication but subject to movement.
Best NFL ATS Picks for Week 8
Let’s dive into the situational matchups and defensive advantages driving my three favorite spread predictions.
NFL ATS Pick #1: Jets -1.5 vs Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders travel east to face the New York Jets. I believe the Jets hold a distinct advantage in the trenches, specifically when utilizing their gap-blocking scheme against Las Vegas’s interior defensive front. By consistently establishing the run out of heavy 12 personnel, New York can dictate tempo and keep their defense fresh.
The Raiders arrive on a four-game losing streak and have historically struggled on the East Coast, most recently suffering a 45–17 loss to the Patriots. The Jets are coming off a loss to Miami, but this looks like a bounce-back spot, with Geno Smith facing his former team in a revenge game. I trust the home defense to limit explosive plays and consistently get off the field on third down.
Laying less than a field goal at home is an attractive proposition when backing a superior defense. At -1.5, we only need a standard win to secure the cover, offering great value on the betting board.
NFL Week 8 Pick: Jets -1.5
NFL ATS Pick #2: Cardinals +7 vs Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys are laying a full touchdown at home, but I am backing the underdog Arizona Cardinals. The Cowboys are on a short week, and they should not be catching seven points against anyone, especially with their defense. I expect the Cardinals to be able to run the ball effectively and move the ball down the field.
Dallas won and covered the spread, but last Monday night against the Eagles was a much closer game than the final score suggested. They consistently struggled to stop a Tanner McKee-led offense.
I love getting a full touchdown with Arizona and fading this Cowboys team on Sunday.
NFL Week 8 Pick: Cardinals +7
NFL ATS Pick #3: Broncos +1.5 vs Chiefs
In an AFC West divisional clash, the Denver Broncos are catching 1.5 points at home against the Kansas City Chiefs, presenting an outstanding opportunity to back the home underdog. Patrick Mahomes has struggled when playing at Mile High. He is 2-7-1 against the spread in his last 10 road games against AFC West opponents and is 0-4 straight up and against the spread in Denver since 2021. Denver’s home-field edge is a major factor, and I believe its defensive scheme is perfectly tailored to frustrate the Kansas City offense.
Offensively, the Broncos must establish the ground game early to protect their quarterback and dominate time of possession. Bo Nix looked a little better last week, and he needs to continue to build on that performance. By leaning on zone-blocking concepts and attacking the edges, Denver can stay ahead of the chains. On third down, the Broncos can deploy bunch formations to exploit man coverage, keeping Kansas City’s defense off balance.
I love betting divisional home underdogs, and the Broncos have had success in this spot, even against the Chiefs.
NFL Week 8 Pick: Broncos +1.5
Social Media Manager; Sports Betting Personality & Handicapper
Zach has been involved in the sports betting industry for three years. After starting to bet on sports in college, Zach was interested in how it can make any game interesting. The trends, line movement, and finding unique angles to predict the outcomes of games captivated Zach to get more involved.
