Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Predictions & Odds

• The Arnold Palmer Invitational tees off Thursday, March 5th
• Scottie Scheffler is the +295 favorite over Rory McIlroy
• See my 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, best value bets, and the odds to win the tournament

After a week where the top players opted for rest, it’s the third signature event on the 2026 PGA Tour calendar, the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This has been something of a personal playground for Scottie Scheffler in his last five attempts, with a pair of victories and nothing worse than a tie for 15th. However, he hasn’t lifted a trophy in his last three tournaments in 2026.

Shane Lowry’s stunning collapse at the Cognizant Classic led to Nico Echavarria snagging his third career title. It was the second straight week I bagged a winner (humble brag), with Jacob Bridgeman at Riviera, and now Echavarria at PGA National, so I’m searching for more value this week and a third straight champion!

Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds (2026)

I’m starting my card this week with Matt Fitzpatrick, who has odds longer than the top-four players on the board at +2600. From 2019-2022 at Bay Hill, he did everything but win, ripping off four consecutive top-10s. The 2022 U.S. Open champion’s closest call came in 2019, where he wound up second.

Odds as of 6:30 pm ET on Sunday, March 1st, at DraftKings. Check out the full list of DraftKings deposit methods.

Last Arnold Palmer Invitational Winners

Fitzy won the DP World Tour Championship late in 2025, and has begun 2026 with a top-10 in Phoenix, top-15 at Pebble Beach and top-25 at Riviera. He’s fourth in strokes gained: approach and fifth tee-to-green on tour this year. The Englishmen has six career top-15s around these parts, giving me great confidence he’ll be in the mix late Sunday evening.

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026 Picks & Value Bets

1. Kurt Kitayama +4300: The last time we saw Kurt Kitayama two weeks ago at the Genesis Invitational, he fired a scintillating final round 64 to wind up as the runner-up. He also has tasted success at the API, winning the tournament in 2023, and he was the 3M Open champion last summer. In a perfect world this betting line is a little bit higher, but that could very well be the case before the first shot is struck Thursday morning.
2. Nicolai Hojgaard +6700: It’s only a matter of time that Nicolai Hojgaard gets into the winners circle on the main circuit, and he came oh so close in Phoenix, resulting in a tie for third. That was his sixth worldwide top-five since last April. Six of the last eight times teeing it up, the Dane has been inside the top-15, including his T-6th at the Cognizant Classic.
3. Michael Thorbjornsen +7600: The young phenom has found himself knocking on the door for his first PGA Tour title in the last year. He’s racked up five top-5’s, including missing out on a playoff at the WM Phoenix Open by a single stroke two starts ago, like Hojgaard. The last 24 rounds on tour, nobody has gained more strokes on approach shots than Thorbjornsen.
4. Sahith Theegala +9600: After a very poor 2025, Sahith Theegala has gotten on track to begin the campaign. He’s posted four top-25’s in his first five events, with a pair of top-10’s. At Bay Hill, Theegala had a tie for sixth in 2024 and T-14th in 2023. He’ll be interesting to monitor in the top 10/20 markets.

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