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PGA FedEx St. Jude Championship Sleepers & Longshot Picks 2022

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Aug 9, 2022 · 6:20 AM PDT

Sam Burns admires a shot
Jun 19, 2022; Brookline, Massachusetts, USA; Sam Burns plays his shot from the sixth tee during the final round of the U.S. Open golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
  • The 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship tees off Thursday (August 11) at TPC Southwind
  • Sam Burns has three victories on Tour this season and finished second at this course in 2021
  • Read below for our favorite sleepers and longshots in the outright, T10 and T20 markets

Russell Henley may have crushed our outright dreams last week after a fifth place result, but a Stephan Jaeger T-20 paying +400 kept us afloat.

Now the PGA Tour moves into the playoff portion of its season with the first of three FedExCup events. The FedEx St. Jude Championship from TPC Southwind kicks off the postseason, drawing the top-125 players in the FedExCup standings, minus the LIV Golf defectors.

This course has hosted PGA Tour events since 1989, but this year will mark its debut in the playoff rotation. It hosted a WGC tournament each of the past three seasons, and plays very much like a Florida track despite being located in Memphis.

2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship Odds

Golfer Odds to Win Top-10 Odds Top-20 Odds
Sam Burns +3500 +300 +140
Billy Horschel +4100 +350 +210
Cameron Davis +13000 +800 +300
Alex Noren +13000 +800 +320

Odds as of August 8th at DraftKings Sportsbook 

A big reason for that is the firm and fast Bermuda grass. As a result, we’ll be targeting players with a strong track record on this course, and others like it in our sleepers and longshots betting card.

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He’s Bermuda Burns for a Reason

We haven’t hit an outright winner since correctly touting Sam Burns at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Colonial Country Club, which hosts that event, features a mix of both Bermuda and Bentgrass, but make no mistake Burns is a Bermuda specialist first and foremost.

Bermuda Burns has three additional victories on his PGA Tour resume, each of which came on Bermuda tracks. He’s won twice at the Valspar Championship in Florida, and ranks among the best in the field in most key categories on courses featuring Bermuda surfaces.

He’s fourth in putting, eighth in strokes gained approach, 16th in ball striking and 18th in iron shots within 15 feet over the past 50 rounds. He finished second last season at the WGC event at TPC Southwind, and top-26 in each of the events he entered on the Florida swing.

He gains an average of 0.7 strokes with his putter on the field per round on Bermuda greens, and last year at this course he gained 6.3 strokes with his putter, 4.4 shots with his irons, and another 4.3 strokes around the greens.

Pick: Sam Burns to Win (+3500)

Horschel Loves This Track

A bit further down the oddsboard we’ll find another Bermuda specialist in Billy Horschel. The 35-year-old got his eight career win on Tour this season at the Memorial, and has ridiculous corse history at TPC Southwind.

Horschel has never won on this track, but he’s been a top-10 machine. He’s finished 10th or better five times in the last eight years, highlighted by a fourth place showing in 2017.

In two Florida starts this season, Horschel finished 16th at the Honda Classic and second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Pick: Billy Horschel to Win (+4000), T10 Finish (+320)

FedEx St. Jude Championship Top-20 Finish Value Picks

  1. Cameron Davis: He may not have the same type of Bermuda or Florida track record as our first two targets, but it’s impossible to ignore his current form. Davis has racked up three consecutive top-20 finishes, gaining a ridiculous 12.6 strokes with his irons along the way. Dating back to mid April, he has top-20 results in five of nine tournaments and ranks 12th in the field in scoring over the past 24 rounds.
  2. Alex Noren: Racked up three top-26 results in three Florida starts this season, including two top-12’s. He finished 19th in his lone appearance at TPC Southwind and has come inside the top-10 in three of his past four FedExCup Playoff starts.

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