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US Open First-Round Leaders Odds, Predictions & Best Bets

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Updated Jun 14, 2022 · 8:11 PM PDT

Sam Burns teeing off
Jun 12, 2022; Etobicoke, Ontario, CAN; Sam Burns plays his tee shot at the second hole during the final round of the RBC Canadian Open golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
  • The US Open from the Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts, tees off Thursday, June 16th
  • Rory McIlroy is the +2000 favorite over Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas to be atop the leaderboard after day one
  • See the best bets and odds to grab the first-round lead in the article below

The prestigious US Open, the third major championship of the season, tees off on Thursday. Coming in off the heels of his RBC Canadian Open triumph, Rory McIlroy is the betting favorite to win his second career US Open and first major since 2014. Jon Rahm, who is the defending champion, and Justin Thomas, who won the most recent major at the PGA, have the second shortest odds to win the title.

There are plenty of opportunities for US Open sleepers and longshots to make some noise at the Country Club in Brookline, which was the site of the USA’s epic comeback victory at the 1999 Ryder Cup.

In this article, we’ll explore which players have the best chance of being the leader after day one, along with which players have been fast starters on Thursdays this season.

2022 US Open First Round Leader Odds

Golfers Odds Tee Time
Rory McIlroy +2000 7:40am
Jon Rahm +2200 7:18am
Justin Thomas +2200 1:14pm
Scottie Scheffler +2500 1:25pm
Xander Schauffele +2800 7:40am
Patrick Cantlay +3000 7:40am
Jordan Spieth +3500 7:29am
Cameron Smith +3500 1:25pm
Dustin Johnson +3500 1:36pm
Collin Morikawa +4000 7:18am
Daniel Berger +4000 7:40am
Will Zalatoris +4000 8:02am
Sam Burns +4000 1:14pm
Viktor Hovland +4000 1:14pm
Shane Lowry +4000 1:47pm

Odds as of June 15th at DraftKings Sportsbook

The forecast calls for a mix of sun and clouds for the duration of the day. Those teeing off in the morning will have temperatures in the low 60s, reaching low 70s for those completing their rounds in the evening. Wind gusts will be more prevalent for the afternoon, where it will swirl between 20-25 miles per hour, compared to between 8-12 MPH in the morning.

A benefit for those teeing it up in the morning is the exact same as it is every week – less bumpy greens with fewer players chewing them up.


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Sam Burns Firing on All Cylinders

Sam Burns (1:14pm tee time) has been dynamite in his last two starts, erasing a seven-stroke Sunday deficit to win at Colonial in a playoff, then chasing that with a T-4th at the Canadian Open. He’s won three times on the campaign, is fourth in total strokes gained, approaching the green and birdie average.

Subsequently, his ‘strokes gained’ stats in the last twelve rounds have been exceptional.

Sam Burns’ Strokes Gained Stats Last Twelve Rounds

Total Putting Approach Ball Striking Short Game Tee-To-Green
2 2 3 4 6 11

Burns’ last seven rounds have resulted in scores in the 60’s, as he’s ranked second in FedEx Cup points. Given his hot play of late, his +4000 ticket is intriguing.

Pick: Sam Burns (+4000)

Niemann Tops in First-Round Scoring

Joaquin Niemann (8:02 am) enters the US Open on a really solid stretch of golf after winning the Genesis Invitational at Riviera. In his last seven starts, the Chilean sensation has racked up seven top-35 finishes, including a tie for third in his most recent outing at the Memorial Tournament.

He’s also tops in first round scoring average at 67.87, with five of his last six Thursday’s yielding a score in the 60’s.

2021-22 PGA Tour First Round Scoring Average Leaders

Golfer Average Score Odds
1. Joaquin Niemann 67.87 +5000
2. Russell Henley 67.93 +5500
4. Cameron Smith 68.42 +3500
5. Scottie Scheffler 68.56 +2500
6. Patrick Cantlay 68.60 +3000
T-7. Cameron Young 68.71 +5000
T-7. Aaron Wise 68.71 +7000
9. Wyndham Clark 68.75 +15000
10. Rory McIlroy 68.80 +2000
12. Sungjae Im 69.06 +4500

In his last eight opening rounds, Niemann is tops in total strokes gained, second in SG: tee-to-green, putting, and short game. He’s teeing off in the morning, which will help him in what is expected to be the easier wind conditions.

Pick: Joaquin Niemann (+5000)

Davis Riley Consistently Strong

Davis Riley (7:29 am) has had a phenomenal rookie season. He very nearly won his first PGA Tour title, dropping a playoff to Sam Burns at the Valspar. In his last six starts, he hasn’t been worse than T-13th in any of them. His results are as follows – T-4th, 5th, T-9th, T-13th, T-4th, T-13th.

Subsequently, his stats of late have been impeccable.

Davis Riley’s Strokes Gained Stats Last Twelve Rounds

Approach Ball Striking Total Tee-To-Green Putting
1 2 7 8 29

Riley is twelfth in birdie average, and has fired a round in the 60’s in four of his last five Thursday’s, making him a very solid sleeper candidate to be ahead after day one.

Pick: Davis Riley (+6000)

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