After Opening at 25-1, Improbable Now 8-1 to Win 2019 Kentucky Derby
- The Kentucky Derby is one month away
- No significant favorite has emerged
- Improbable has seen his odds slashed down from 25/1 to 8/1
Horse racing fans went almost four decades without seeing a Triple Crown winner before American Pharoah triumphed in 2015. Last year Justify became just the 13th Triple Crown winner in history. With a month before the Kentucky Derby this year no individual horse has yet staked his claim to being the favorite or even really a significant Triple Crown threat. With uncertainty comes opportunity.
Improbable has seen his odds dive after impressive performances in December and March. He will run once more on April 13th at the Arkansas Derby to prepare for the main event in Louisville. Improbable is one of many options, which is good for bettors who have a strong opinion because value is present if you can find the winner.
Let’s take a look at the updated 2019 Kentucky Derby odds.
2019 Kentucky Derby Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Game Winner | +700 |
| Improbable | +800 |
| Maximum Security | +1000 |
| War of Will | +1200 |
| Omaha Beach | +1400 |
| Anothertwistafate | +1600 |
| Instagrand | +1600 |
| Code of Honor | +1800 |
| Haikal | +2000 |
| Long Range Toddy | +2000 |
*Odds taken 04/03/19
Game Winner
Bob Baffert has trained the last two Triple Crown winners and Game Winner appeared on his way to being the Kentucky Derby favorite this year. He may still be, but following a four for four start to his career he finished second in last month’s Rebel Stakes (the second of the two Rebel’s that day). He’ll have his shot to rebound at the Santa Anita Derby
Improbable
Also trained by Baffert, Improbable is partially owned by the China Horse Group, the connections behind Justify last year. Improbable was three for three in his career before finishing as the runner up in the first of the two Rebel Stakes held at Oaklawn Park on March 16th.
Maximum Security
Gary and Mary West have owned a lot of classy horses throughout the years. Trainer Jason Servis has been incredibly successful over the past few seasons. Neither owners nor trainer had any idea how good Maximum Security was. He debuted in a maiden claiming race in December. That means he was available to be purchased, in this case for $16,000.
Maximum Security debuted in a maiden claiming race in December. That means he was available to be purchased, in this case for $16,000.
Luckily for the humans involved nobody bought Maximum Security who has gone on to win two ho-hum allowance races before shocking the field at the Florida Derby last weekend. He has a ton of early speed and that is always dangerous.
War of Will
He needed five races to finally get in the winners circle, but then strung together back-to-back victories in graded stakes races at the Fair Grounds. His last race, March’s Louisiana Derby, didn’t go well though as he dealt with very poor racing luck in a ninth place finish. He is not scheduled to run against until the Kentucky Derby, and is a very hard read.
Omaha Beach
Like War of Will, Omaha Beach failed to win his first five races. Though he was competitive with other horses who had never won, and is very well bred, it seemed ambitious to enter him in the second race of the Rebels Stakes. He won and now is among the Derby favorites. He’ll run again in the Arkansas Derby.
The Bet
This year’s Kentucky Derby crop has yet to distinguish themselves. It is hard to separate them and therefore we do not advise taking a short price. A bet on Omaha Beach, who had very high expectations but just recently met them probably has the most value. He may have just found himself, and with a big run in Arkansas will be closer to 5/1 than his current attractive 14/1 odds.
Pick: Omaha Beach (+1400)
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
