Belmont Stakes Exotic Bets – Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta Picks
- Exotic betting on the Belmont Stakes is a high risk, high reward way to try and win big
- How can you approach the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta picks Saturday in New York?
- What horses can we depend on, who can we toss, and which one might flip an ordinary afternoon into a memorable score in the Belmont Stakes exotic bets?
In each of the last three years the Belmont Stakes has been won by the favorite. While payouts of $7.20, $4.60, and $3.60 on two dollar win bets beat losing, they aren’t exactly the scores we dream of. However, last year the fifty cent trifecta still managed to pay $93.75.
If we avoid a chalky result, there can be a windfall. In 2019 Sir Winston won the final leg of the Triple Crown and paid $22.40. Even with the favorite running second, a $1 exacta cashed for $48, the fifty cent tri paid $622, and a ten cent superfecta scored for $1042.80.
Belmont Stakes odds show a pretty strong lean towards Forte, Tapit Trice, and Angel of Empire. While an exacta with two of those horses won’t pay great, you can play it for more than the minimum, and a trifecta with two of them plus a long shot could do just fine. Consider the prices available on horse racing betting sites, and lets formulate a plan for this year’s Belmont Stakes picks and predictions.
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Best Belmont Stakes Exotic Bets
The Kentucky Derby featured a field of 18 this year, while the Preakness Stakes had only seven, and of those two had virtually no chance. Large fields mean more combinations for all possible exotic bets, and therefore bigger payouts. Consider the difference in betting odds when there are two teams playing in the NBA Finals as opposed 16 at the start of the playoffs, or eight teams when the second round of the postseason gets rolling. There are higher prices available earlier in the playoffs because more teams are alive, whether you think they have a great chance or not.
Different types of horse racing bets require various strategies. As it pertains to exotic wagering, you need to have some conviction. What horses can you lean on, who can you toss, what favorites are vulnerable, how is the race going to be run?
The Belmont Stakes is a-mile-and-a-half marathon, longer than any of these horses has ever run before, and probably longer than they’ll run in the future. Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, and Hit Show, all most recently took part in the mile-and-a-quarter Kentucky Derby.
The Derby can be a weird race. It is the largest field of the year, and the tempo tends to be fast. In theory that sets up horses like Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice, who prefer to come from behind with a late rally. The pace was indeed fast in Louisville, and Angel of Empire came running. Tapit Trice made a much milder bid.
Belmont Stakes Exacta Picks
Forte was going to be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby but was scratched the morning of the race with a minor injury. There are reasons to be skeptical. He hasn’t run in 10 weeks and now must have enough stamina to go a marathon distance. Though his speed figures have declined recently, his Florida Derby victory over eventual Run for the Roses winner Mage looks really good, particularly since he had to come from a very bad outside post position.
The bottom line is that Forte was the best two year old last year, and what we have seen on the track this year suggests not a lot has changed. Will he like the distance? Is he fit? We’ll find out Saturday, but trainer Todd Pletcher has had more success in the Belmont than any other Triple Crown race, winning it four times including last year.
We’ll play exactas using Forte primarily, and including the other top options
- $20 Forte over Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice — $40
- $10 Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice over Forte — $20
- $5 Forte over Red Route One, Tapit Shoes, and Hit Show — $15
- Total Wager — $75
Lots of people like to box horses. The problem with that strategy is you are saying that you like horses exactly the same amount. While Forte, Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice all have reasonable chances of winning, if you like Forte more, you should bet him proportionally stronger. If Forte wins, we want to hit a decent sized ticket, that is why we play him on top of the next most likely options for more money than the second choices over our top pick. We also take our top longshots, and play them under our most likely winner, but for less money, since there is a smaller chance of those entrants hitting the board.
Belmont Stakes Trifecta Picks
We’re playing against Preakness winner National Treasure. His victory in Baltimore makes clear he can win, place, or show on Saturday, but everything went his way three weeks ago. He had no pressure early on, established the lead going slowly, pushed out his early rivals so that they had to race wide, and then strolled home, barely holding over Blazing Stevens. He has less rest than most of his rivals, and the Preakness was not a deep race.
We’re using the same horses in the trifecta as we did the exacta.
- $5 trifecta Forte over Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice over Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice — $20
- $2 trifecta Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice over Forte, Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice, over Forte, Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice — $36
- $1 trifecta Forte over Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice over Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, Red Route One, Tapit Shoes, and Hit Show — $10
- $0.50 trifecta Forte over Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, Red Route One, Tapit Shoes, and Hit Show, over Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, Red Route One, Tapit Shoes, and Hit Show — $12.50
- Total Wager — $78.50
Again, you need an opinion. If you like Forte best, play him as such. Then give yourself the most opportunities to hit the winning combination as possible, tiering your plays so that your money is where your mouth is.
Belmont Stakes Superfecta Picks
There is a temptation with a $0.10 minimum to play supersfectas like lottery tickets. That will not be your best longterm ROI. Be disciplined. You have a much better chance of winning an exacta or trifecta, so don’t blow your budget on supers. At the same time, don’t just box a bunch of horses unless you feel equally about them. Let’s try to win the super in the same manner we put together exacta and trifecta plays.
Why are we are using Red Route One, Tapit Shoes and Hit Show? Red Route One should like the extra distance and is being ignored in wagering because of his brutal Preakness performance. However, he has several excuses and should run better Saturday at a big price. Tapit Shoes, like Tapit Trice, is the son of Tapit. Tapit’s offspring have a terrific recent record in the Belmont Stakes. Hit Show ran in the Kentucky Derby. We much prefer him to the Derby runners we are not using, he was legitimate despite a bad post in Louisville, and has done his best running in New York. Horses who run in the Derby and Belmont but skip the Preakness have had recent success.
- $1 superfecta Forte over Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice over Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice over Red Route One, Tapit Shoes and Hit Show — $12
- $0.50 superfecta Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice over Forte, Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice, over Forte, Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice, over Red Route One, Tapit Shoes and Hit Show — $27
- $0.10 superfecta Forte over Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice, over Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, Red Route One, Tapit Shoes, and Hit Show over Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, Red Route One, Tapit Shoes and Hit Show — $5
- Total Wager — $44
Belmont Stakes Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta Picks
There is a push and pull on Belmont Stakes exotic bets. You want to cover a lot of combinations, but each one should be bet to your level of conviction. We like Forte best, and are playing against National Treasure. Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice are our clear second choices. If our handicapping is right, hopefully we hit a big one, even if it doesn’t pay huge for the minimum bets. That’s why we play our favorite tickets for the most money, even if favorites win, you can hit multiple times. Of course, the handicapping has to be on point. Good luck in the final leg of the Triple Crown.
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Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
