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Colonial Downs Predictions & Odds – Arlington Million, Beverly D Stakes & More Horse Racing Picks

Dave Friedman

by Dave Friedman in Horse Racing News

Updated Aug 11, 2023 · 1:03 PM PDT

Nagirroc with Flavien Prat up (9) wins race 12
May 20, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Nagirroc with Flavien Prat up (9) wins race 12, the James W. Murphy S. Presented by Four Seasons of Baltimore ahead of Funtastic Again with John R. Velazquez up (1) and Circling the Drain with Jevian Toledo up (5) at Pimlico Race Course. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
  • The first Arlington Million Day at Colonial Downs takes place on Saturday
  • Three graded stakes are on the docket including the Breeders Cup Win and You’re In Beverly D Stakes
  • What price horses are worthy of wager with three wide open high end turf races on the card?

The first $1 million race in America was the 1981 Arlington Million won by John Henry. Run at Arlington Park in the Chicago suburbs until the facility closed in 2021, last year the race took place at Churchill Downs. With its’ lush turf course, Colonial Downs in the suburbs of Richmond, VA, will host the event this year. Read on for our Colonial Downs predictions for this weekend.

The mile-and-a-quarter Arlington Million, and two other races traditionally run on Arlington Park’s sod, the mile-and-three-sixteenths Beverly D Stakes, and one mile Secretariat Stakes, each look to be pretty open. No horse is under +200 in any of three events, and the Arlington Million favorite, Atone, is +350.

Let’s look carefully at the fields this Saturday in what may be the biggest day of racing in the history of Old Dominion. Where can we find betting value in our horse racing picks today?

Expert Horse Racing Picks at Colonial Downs

Race Pick Odds
Secretariat Stakes Silver Knott +300
Beverly D Stakes Gina Romantica +500
Arlington Million Adhamo +1000

Our Colonial Downs predictions will feature picks on Silver Knott (+300), Gina Romantico (+500) and Adhamo (+1000). Be sure to check out the top US betting sites before you make your Colonial Downs picks to get a great sportsbook bonus this weekend.

Weather on Saturday in Virginia is likely to be warm and dry. All three races will air on FanDuel TV. The Secretariat goes at 5:10 pm ET, with the Beverly D 45 minutes later, and the Arlington Million at 6:40 pm. The Beverly D is a Breeders’ Cup Win and You’re In event with the winner earning a berth into the BC Filly & Mare Turf.

Secretariat Stakes Prediction

More Than Looks (+500) beat Nagirroc (+250) and Major Dude (+600) on July 7 at Belmont Park. That day Nagirroc was the favorite at +165, with Major Dude a close second choice at +200, and More Than Looks +720.

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Nagirroc was super impressive on the Preakness undercard, after losing as the favorite to Mo Stash (+500) in April at Keeneland.

In his first race against graded stakes company, More Than Looks ran his best career race, picking up a third win in five tries. Major Dude ran his worst race of the year after four straight strong performances albeit at smaller tracks.

Mo Stash, who usually goes to the front, wouldn’t let Nagirroc by when they met. However, he was passed in the late stages on the Kentucky Derby undercard, and just yielded last time out at Ellis Park.

Silver Knott (+300) was second in last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. This year he was outclassed in a tough race in Great Britain, and has run third and fifth against top horses at Belmont Park. He hasn’t seemed to improve yet from the age of two to three.

Northern Invader (+800) didn’t run as a two year old, and his first two races, both on dirt were solid but not spectacular. Against maidens in his turf debut at Belmont Park last month he scored by eight lengths. This will be a big step up in competition.

Secretariat Stakes Picks: Silver Knott (+300)

Beverly D Stakes Prediction

A seven-horse field includes just one entrant that is over +1000, and Jan’s Girl (+1200) has won three straight. She is stepping up significantly in competition.

Fev Rover (+200) made her US debut four weeks ago and finished third, behind Whitebeam and In Italian, two good ones, in the Grade 1 Diana Stakes at Saratoga. She won two of four races in Canada following an 11-race international career that saw a lot of money earned, but not many victories. She knows a thing or two about top caliber opponents.

Didia (+300) saw her seven race win streak snapped at Belmont Park on June 9 in the Grade 1 New York Stakes. She wasn’t comfortable entering the starting gate, and still ran second in her first G1 race in North America. She won two top level events in Chile, and took the Grade 3 Modesty Stakes at Churchill Downs on Derby Weekend.

Romagna Mia (+400) has raced in Europe and the Middle East. In Italy last year she won three times in five races with two seconds, and took a Group 2 contest to wrap up the year. Facing better horses this year, she has not hit the board running three times in France and once in Qatar.

Gina Romantica (+500), like Jan’s Girl and Romagna Mia, is a four year old. Often horses take their greatest leap forward moving from the age of three to four. Gina Romantica was off between October and June, and she ran fourth upon return in the Grade 3 Eatontown Stakes at Monmouth Park. Her win to wrap up last year in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Keeneland was strong. She should fire her best race second off the layoff, and second as a four year old on Saturday. Is it good enough? We think it will be in our Colonial Downs predictions.

Beverly D Stakes Picks: Gina Romantica (+500)

Arlington Million Prediction

Santin (+800) won this race last year when it was run in Louisville.

Santin was on a role then. He won the 2022 Turf Classic on Derby Weekend, finished sixth but posted a big speed rating in the Grade 1 Manhattan, and then won the Arlington Million. Since then things haven’t gone well. He has lost six straight and hasn’t hit the board in any of them. Getting back on turf should help, but it will take a similar effort to last year’s version of this race to get the job done.

Atone (+350) is one of four Grade 1 winners in this field of 11. However, he has never raced more than a-mile-and-an-eighth. Does he want an extra eighth of a mile? His win in the Pegasus World Cup Turf in January was awesome. His two race since then are fair.

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Never Explain (+600) has run four straight solid races including a win in the Grade 3 Dinner Party Stakes on Preakness Weekend. It is unclear if that effort would be good enough to beat this group. He lost to Catnip (+800) at Monmouth Park on June 17. Catnip followed that victory up with a second place effort in the Grade 1 United Nations Stakes three weeks ago. He is working really quickly leading into this affair.

Seven year olds Set Piece (+600), Rockemperor (+500), and Master Piece (+1200) all have races during their careers that could win this. None appear to be in their best form right now, but Set Piece won impressively at Churchill Downs on June 3 in a Grade 3 event.

Adhamo (+1000) has faced strictly the top North American horses. After just missing in last February’s Grade 3 Fair Grounds Stakes, he ran in five straight G1 races, winning one, and finishing second in another. This is his 2023 debut, and it is possible the mile-and-a-half distance in his last two races before the layoff was just too long.

Arlington Million Picks: Adhamo (+1000)

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