Odds Heavily Favor Secretariat’s Record Not Being Broken at the 2019 Kentucky Derby
- Churchill Downs will host the Kentucky Derby on May 4th
- Secretariat is one of two horses in over 120 years to break the two-minute mark
- Is the substantial price worth a small wager that someone this year breaks the Derby record?
The Kentucky Derby has been run at horse racing’s traditional championship distance of one and one-quarter mile since 1896. Secretariat set the Derby record needing just 1:59.40 to cross the finish line in 1973.
In 2001 Monarchos became the second horse to break the two minute barrier winning in a time of 1:59.97. Could somebody break the record this year?
Will Secretariat’s Record-Setting Kentucky Derby Time Fall in 2019?
| Will There Be a new Kentucky Derby record time in 2019? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +1000 |
| No | -2500 |
*Odds taken 04/10/19
Of course it is unlikely that someone will break a 45-year record, but that’s why you are getting sizable odds to forecast a new low mark. Let’s look at the prices from sportsbooks, discuss key factors, and see whether there is a bet worth considering.
Contenders
The idea of breaking Secretariat’s record is a serious one but someday it will fall. Occasionally there are super horses, who are hyped up, show skill as a two-year-old, and come to Kentucky as enormous favorites. One would think it would take a horse like that to break the record. This year it does not appear that animal exists.
Last week when we looked at the top contenders, nobody jumped to the front of the line. That said, Monarchos was incredibly surprising, having lost his last race before the Kentucky Derby, and sporting a three wins in six races record before running the second-fastest Derby in history.
Track Conditions
Part of the equation for setting a track record goes beyond the horses running. It rains a lot in Louisville in May. Only five of the last 10 Kentucky Derby’s have been run under “fast” conditions, meaning the dirt racing surface is dry and horses are able to clock their best times.
The fastest 26 runnings of the the race all came under fast conditions. Check out the long-range forecast to make sure the competitors will have a fair shot.
History
In horse racing every fifth of a second is equivalent to one length. That means that horses that run 2:01:00 are approximately five lengths worse than a horse that runs two minutes flat. Only six horses in history have broken 2:01:00.
Since Secretariat there have been two, Monarchos, and Spend a Buck in 1985. Monarchos ran just fractions of a second slower than Secretariat, which is incredible since only five horses in history have run within five lengths of Secretariat’s record time.
Odds
The implied probability of +1000 is about nine percent. If you think a Derby record is a 10-percent shot or better, a yes bet is worthwhile. Conversely, -2500 is implied to mean just over 96-percent. If the chances of this happening are less than four percent, a no bet is strongly worth considering.
The Bet
The Kentucky Derby has been run at a-mile-and-a-quarter since 1889. Two horses, Monarchos and Northern Dancer ran a time pretty darn close to Secretariat’s. Three others, Spend a Buck, Decidedly, and Proud Clarion are in the same general neighborhood.
Nobody else has come close. This year has no logical contender, the weather may not cooperate and there just is no compelling reason to think the record will fall.
Pick: No (-2500)
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
