Odds for 2024 Preakness & Expert Picks, Predictions

• The 2024 Preakness Stakes takes place this Saturday, May 18, at Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore, Maryland
• Kentucky Derby-winner Mystik Dan is the new favorite after opening favorite Muth was scratched
• See the odds to win the 2024 Preakness Stakes plus expert picks and predictions

The 149th running of the Preakness Stakes takes place on Saturday, May 18, at Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore, MD. The second leg of the 2024 Triple Crown will see Kentucky Derby-winner Mystik Dan enter as a 5/2 (+250) favorite after opening favorite Muth was scratched earlier in the week.

The table below lists the latest Preakness Stakes odds for all eight horses remaining in the field along with post positions and their finishing position in the Kentucky Derby, if applicable. Under the table, find my best bets and picks for the 2024 Preakness.

2024 Preakness Stakes Odds

Mystik Dan is a sizable favorite over the rest of the field. At +250, Mystik Dan has a 28.57% implied win probability. The second-favorites – Catching Freedom and Imagination – are at +600, which carries a 14.29%, i.e. half that of Mystik Dan.

Odds as of May 17 at Twin Spires. 

Next comes Tuscan Gold at +800 (11.11%) with the other four horses at either +1500 (6.25%) or +2000 (4.76%).

The early favorite to win the Preakness was Bob Baffert’s Muth at 8/5 (+160), which had a 38.46% implied win probability. But Muth was scratched due to running a temperature of 103 degrees on Tuesday. Mystik Dan had been listed at +300 in the opening lines and saw his price shorten to +250 after the former favorite was scratched.

Only One Horse Has Won the Derby and Preakness Since 2015

While the odds favor Mystik Dan, recent history is not in favor of the Derby-winner. Only once since 2015 has the Kentucky Derby champion gone onto win the Preakness, and that was Triple Crown-winner Justify in 2018.  In the history of the Triple Crown, however, 36 horses have won the Derby and Preakness (with 13 going onto win the Triple Crown and 23 falling short at the Belmont), which includes 11 such horses since 1997.

Only three of the horses running in the Preakness also racred the Kentucky Derby. Co-second-favorite Catching Freedom finished fourth at the Derby,  just 1.75 lengths behind Mystik Dan. Just Steel, who has +1500 odds to win the Preakness out of post position #7, was an also-ran in the Derby, finishing a distant 17th.

Mystik Dan was a fairly big +2000 longshot entering the Derby, a co-seventh-favorite. Jockey Brian Hernandez ran a near-perfect race while taking the Derby by a nose over Sierra Leone and Forever Young. Running out of the #3 post position, Hernandez had Mystik Dan on the inside rail from the opening corner and his positioning around the final bend give him a lead that he wouldn’t relinquish (though would have if the race had been a few feet further).

Preakness Stakes Pick & Predictions 2024

The weather for the Preakness forecasts to be considerably wetter/muddier than the Derby. Churchill Downs got rain early on race day two weeks ago, but the track was fairly dry by post time (and was rated “fast”). Pimlico is likely to be an off-track this Saturday.

That could actually be good news for Brian Hernandez and Mystik Dan, though. Mystik Dan has previous wins in muddy conditions, and there isn’t a positive off-track history for many others in the race. Uncle Heavy (+2000) is the only other horse with a serious off-track resume.

Many believe Mystik Dan’s main competition will be Bob Baffert’s other horse, Imagination. In six career races, Imagination has won twice and never finished worse than second. three times finishing less than a full length behind the winner.

As much as I want to back Mystik Dan and see a potential Triple Crown-winner at the Belmont, the odds are just too short. Imagination offers far better value at +600.

2024 Preakness best bet: Imagination (+600)