Books Offering +425 Odds for Any Horse to Win Triple Crown in 2019
- The Kentucky Derby will be run on May 4th
- Triple Crown winners have emerged in two of the last four years
- Is +425 a good price on a Triple Crown winner this year?
The biggest day each calendar year for the Sport of Kings comes on the first Saturday in May. That’s when the Kentucky Derby has been run for generations. Only the Derby winner has a chance to join the club of Triple Crown winners. Thirteen horses in history have won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes. Interestingly, after a nearly four decade drought, we have had two Triple Crown champions in the last four years,
What makes winning the Triple Crown so difficult is the vast number of challenges each entrant faces. You only get one chance, as a three year old, the races are run close together (three races in six weeks), and the competition is both stiff and numerous.
With the Kentucky Derby right around the corner, let’s look at the odds of a grand champion emerging this year and discuss the obstacles the competitors will face.
Will There Be a Triple Crown Winner in 2019?
| Will There Be a Triple Crown Winner in 2019? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +425 |
| No | -500 |
*Odds taken 04/10/19
This Year’s Crop
While studying history and probabilities is worthwhile, if there is going to be a Triple Crown winner this year it must come from this particular season’s group of contenders. Some three year old classes produce many strong horses while others are off years.
We have been following Derby hopefuls for months. Just last week we analyzed updated future prices. The bottom line is no one horse has yet distinguished himself. That doesn’t mean it won’t become apparent over the next month or even following a dominating Derby triumph. However, right now who would potentially win the Triple Crown is unknown.
Decade of Excellence?
The long drought between Triple Crown winners that ended with American Pharoah in 2015 is not unprecedented. An event that has taken place for over 100 years has seen ebbs and flows. There were three winners in the 1930’s, and four more in the 1940’s. However, after Citation won in 1948 there were no Triple Crown’s until Secretariat in 1973.
After Citation won in 1948 there were no Triple Crown’s until Secretariat in 1973.
Two more winners stepped forward in the 70’s and then we waited again. Maybe because the system to get into the Kentucky Derby has been revised to ensure the best horses get a chance, or it is luck, or perhaps a magical trainer is the reason we seem to be in an upswing.
The Era of Bob Baffert
With apologies to Todd Pletcher, who has dominated New York racing and been a Hall of Fame-caliber trainer for the last two decades, we are living in the era of Bob Baffert. The silky haired trainer of American Pharoah, and last year’s Triple Crown winner Justified, has proven an ability to have his horses ready to go for the Triple Crown gauntlet.
Because Baffert has the earned reputation as the best come this time of year, he has a lot of high quality horses. Top contenders Game Winner, Improbable, and Roadster are all in Baffert’s barn.
The Ultimate Challenge
If a horse wins the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, he is a victory at the Belmont Stakes away from the Triple Crown. The Belmont, run at a marathon distance of a-mile-and-a-half, is known as the Test of the Champion.
The reason why the Belmont is so hard is both individual and cumulative. The race itself is the longest any horse competing in it has ever tried, and the stretch run in the longest in all of the sport. It can get very tiring over the final eighth of a mile particularly for horses who have been asked to run a lot.
Many horses who lose in Louisville skip the Preakness and rest up for the Belmont.
While the Derby winner goes to the Preakness, many horses who lose in Louisville skip the Preakness and rest up for the Belmont. Other horses skip both of the first two races eyeing a weakened Derby and Preakness winner in New York. In other words, in the Kentucky Derby you must beat 19 rivals, then go to Baltimore where there will be fresh horses, other top Derby finishers, and often bad weather, and if you make it through that face even more challenges at the Belmont Stakes.
The Bet
The implied probability of +425 is 19%. In other words, you must believe there is a roughly one in five chance of a Triple Crown winner this year in order to seriously consider betting yes. On the flip side, -500 equates to about 83%. The bottom line is there is no obvious candidate to win it this year, and throughout history we do not get a Triple Crown winner at that high a rate (it is in the neighborhood of 10%). No is a sensible play based on a variety of relevant factors.
Pick: No (-500)
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
