Tampa Bay Derby Prediction & Odds – Tapit Trice Heavily Favored
- Saturday’s $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby awards 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner
- Tapit Trice is a significant favorite in his stakes debut in the Tampa Bay Derby odds
- Is Tapit Trice one of the top three-year-olds, or will we see an upset in the Sunshine State for our Tampa Bay Derby prediction?
The Tampa Bay Derby may not have the prestige or history of other Kentucky Derby prep races, but it’s proven to be a workable route to Louisville on the first Saturday in May. Street Sense won the Tampa Bay Derby and wore roses two months later. Super Saver won in Kentucky after a third-place performance in Tampa.
With 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points awarded to the winner, effectively the Tampa Bay Derby is a win and you’re in race. Finishing second will earn someone 20 points, with 15, 10 and five points for the next three across the line.
Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Tampa Bay Derby a record five times and has the favorite, Tapit Trice on Saturday. Pletcher also sends out second choice Shesterkin. Should we bet on or against Pletcher? Where is the betting value in the Tampa Bay Derby odds?
2023 Tampa Bay Derby Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tapit Trice | +160 |
| Shesterkin | +450 |
| Groveland | +600 |
| Classic Legacy | +600 |
| Classic Car Wash | +800 |
| Lord Miles | +1200 |
| Freedom Road | +1500 |
| Champions Dream | +2000 |
| Zydeceaux | +2000 |
| Prairie Hawk | +2000 |
| Dreaming of Kona | +3000 |
| Mikey Bananas | +3000 |
As you can see in the chart above, Pletcher’s duo of Tapit Trice (+160) and Shesterkin (+450) are the favorites with Classic Legacy (+600), Groveland (+600), and Classic Car Wash (+800) among the top choices. Locking in Kentucky Derby odds on Tapit Trice now is not an awful idea if you think he’s going to win. When the mile-and-a-sixteenth Tampa Bay Derby begins at 5:15 pm ET, the weather is expected to be sunny and in the mid ’70s with very little chance of rain. Fox Sports 2 and Fan Duel TV will have coverage of the race.
Let’s look at some of the Tampa Bay Derby contenders here.
Turn Back the Clock for Todd Pletcher
Pletcher dominated this race last decade. He won four times in five years starting with Verrazano’s score in 2013. Three of the four victories were by prohibitive favorites.
Tapit Trice is going to be heavily favored on the strength of his dominating victory over Shesterkin among others last time out.
Tapit Trice is a $1.3 million son of Wood Memorial winner Tapit. He ran third in his debut and returned to win in the mud in New York in December. His 2023 debut was the type of race that puts you firmly on the Derby radar.
Shesterkin was the favorite facing Tapit Trice last time out. He entered that race off a maiden score at Gulfstream Park. He will add blinkers on Saturday, an indication they want him to run fast early, and see if the speed holds.
Local Options for Tampa Bay Derby Picks
Seven of the 12 horses in the Tampa Bay Derby ran in last month’s Sam F Davis Stakes. While race winner Litigate is not running this weekend, runner-up Groveland, third-place Classic Car Wash, fourth across-the-line Classic Legacy, and fifth-place Zydeceaux are in the field.
Groveland is never respected in the wagering but seems to always run well. He has been in the money in all five starts, yet has only a single victory.
Classic Car Wash beat fairly low-level maidens in December, and then Florida bred allowance horses in January before rallying late last time out.
Champions Dream is a $425,000 son of Triple Crown winner Justify. Though he was eased in the Sam F Davis, his final race in 2022 was strong, winning the Grade 3 Nashua. He missed by a neck to Zydeceaux in the Pasco at Tampa in January.
Zydeceaux looks more like a sprinter than a horse that wants a ton of distance but should have the lead, and that can be dangerous.
Tampa Bay Derby Prediction
Tapit Trice is making his stakes debut, but anything close to his last effort should be good enough to beat this group. Shesterkin could be underrated. Sure he was dominated by his stablemate last time out, but now he has blinkers, his debut was impressive, and remember he was the favorite last time they ran. One or more of the horses from the Sam F Davis may prove to be a capable challenger, but they must run faster on Saturday to be a legit competition for Tapit Trice.
Tampa Bay Derby Picks: Tapit Trice (+160)
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Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
