Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks, Odds – Withers, Sam F Davis & El Camino Real Derby
- Three Kentucky Derby prep races are on the docket for Saturday
- The Withers Stakes, Sam F Davis Stakes, and El Camino Real Derby have all recently factored into the Triple Crown
- Where can we find betting value with the three-year-olds this weekend in our Derby prep race picks?
The road to the Kentucky Derby is heating up with three Kentucky Derby prep races this weekend.
Next weekend the first Run for the Roses prep that awards 50 points to the winner takes place. This Saturday, the Withers Stakes in New York and Sam F Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs carry 20 qualifying points to the winner, while Golden Gate Fields holds the El Camino Real Derby, with 10 points awarded to the victor.
Let’s examine each of the three fields, and see if there are some Kentucky Derby prep race odds that justify a bet or two.
Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks
| Race | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Withers Stakes | Hit Show | +180 |
| Sam F. Davis Stakes | Litigate | +500 |
| El Camino Real Derby | Gilmore | +400 |
The mile-and-an-eighth Withers is slated for 4:27 pm EST with the weather at Aqueduct expected to be sunny and in the 40s. The Sam F. Davis is a mile-and-a-sixteenth challenge that goes at 5:18 pm with mid 70s temperatures and a 15% chance of rain. Both dirt races will air on Fox Sports 1. Golden Gate Fields just outside Berkeley, CA, runs the mile-and-an-eighth El Camino Real on a synthetic surface. Post time is slated for 4:45 pm. It will be available on FanDuel TV, and they are expecting mid 50s with a small chance of rain.
Last year’s Withers winner Early Voting went on to capture the Preakness Stakes. Two years ago the Preakness was won by El Camino Real champ Rombauer. In 2017 Tapwrit won the Tampa Bay Derby and went on to score in the Belmont Stakes.
Though it has been a while, both the Withers and Sam F. Davis Stakes have had Kentucky Derby winners run in them. Let’s look at this year’s fields.
Withers Stakes Picks
Hit Show (+180) and Arctic Arrogance (+160) are the two logical favorites in the Withers Stakes odds.
From the powerful Brad Cox barn, Hit Show has been bet heavily in each of his three races and won twice. This is his stakes debut. Arctic Arrogance has two wins and three seconds in five starts, and just missed against Sam F Davis Stakes favorite Dubyuhnell in December’s Remsen Stakes.
Trainer Linda Rice is putting blinkers on Arctic Arrogance for the first time on Saturday. That often suggests a desire to be in the lead.
Last week trainer Bill Mott’s barn was hot in the Derby prep races. He sends out Jungfrau (+400), who has not finished first in three races but was awarded a victory on December 31 via disqualification. The son of Arrogate has the feel of a horse who will improve.
Withers Stakes Pick: Hit Show (+180)
Sam F Davis Stakes Picks
Dubyuhnell (+180) has two wins in three starts, but both victories were on sloppy tracks. A repeat of his Remsen score would make him tough on Saturday.
Champions Dream (+450) is the son of Triple Crown winner Justify. Champions Dream has two wins in four starts and missed by a neck against Zydeceaux (+2000) last month on the Tampa Bay Downs course.
Champions Dream was the favorite that day and got out poorly. He seemed to have more in the tank down the stretch than Zydeceaux, and that could be helpful since the Pasco was run at seven furlongs, and this is a mile-and-a-sixteenth.
Litigate (+500) won his debut, and ran a quick second last time out against Cyclone Mischief, who was the favorite but ran poorly in the Holy Bull Stakes. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Sam F. Davis a record six times.
Prairie Hawk (+600) has won two straight after a mediocre debut at Gulfstream Park in October. Both of the victories came at Tampa Bay Downs, and he beat Groveland (+1200) last time out. Trainer Saffie Joseph is off to a strong 2023 and wins a ton of races, particularly in Florida.
Sam F Davis Stakes Pick: Litigate (+500)
El Camino Real Derby Picks
In a race where Bob Baffert has two of the eight horses, it is surprising that someone else is the favorite. Passarando (+200) has four wins in eight tries and is three for five with two seconds at Golden Gate Fields. Passarando made the trip to Southern California and ran a solid third in a stakes race last month.
Neither of Baffert’s horses has run against winners, and because Baffert is banned from participating in the Kentucky Derby, his horses can not earn qualifying points. Gilmore (+400) was third in his debut going six furlongs at Del Mar in November and won as a heavy favorite at Los Alamitos in December. He’s a $250,000 son of Twirling Candy. Nullarbor (+600) is a $500,000 horse that ran very poorly in his first two races. After a break, placed into a claiming race in January, he won going away.
Chase the Chaos (+300) was second behind Passarando in a stakes race at Golden Gate in December and then blew away optional claimers last time out.
Harcyn (+500) has won two sprints at Golden Gate by open lengths, but the competition picks up considerably, and the added distance are questions on Saturday in the El Camino Real odds.
El Camino Real Pick: Gilmore (+400)
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Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
