Trends to Know Before Betting the 2019 Kentucky Derby

• The Kentucky Derby will be run on Saturday, May 4th, at 6:50 PM ET
• What historical trends can help you scope out this year’s winner?
• Let analytics guide your Run for the Roses bets

When you have an event that takes place once a year, and is almost a century-and-a-half old, there is a lot of history to help you handicap. While it is up to the individual bettor to determine what Kentucky Derby numbers are most important, the more information you have the better.

This year’s Derby is a particularly tough test because there is no one standout horse. It is likely the favorite will go off at 4-1 or 5-1, and having data that can help you eliminate horses may be helpful.

Let’s look at some trends that can assist you as we narrow the contenders down.

Kentucky Derby Trends

Points

There was a thought late last decade and at the start of this one that the Kentucky Derby was not inviting the 20 best three-year-olds. They changed the criteria for getting an invite. Instead of earnings, a points system was created with the most important prep races awarding the highest number of points.

The top-20 point earners get invites. Since the new system was initiated in 2013, every Kentucky Derby-winner has had at least 100 points entering the race.

Prep Races

Handicappers rely on past performances. It can be hard to compare a horse that finished second on a wet surface in New York to a winner under fast conditions in California. Over the long history of the Kentucky Derby, horses of all varieties have come to Kentucky and won.

That said, recently, only two types have been successful. Six of the last seven Derby winners made their previous start in either the Florida Derby or Santa Anita Derby. All six won those prep races.

Names

Like redheads or left handers, some horse names are a little bit more rare. In particular, three-word names haven’t had a great deal of success at the Kentucky Derby.

Interestingly, on the occasion that they do hit the wire first, they tend to pay big. Since 1994, only two horses with three-part names have won, Mine That Bird was 50/1 in 2009 and I’ll Have Another went off at 15/1 in 2012.

The prior two three-word-name victories came from Go For Gin (9/1) in 1994, and Lil E. Tee (17/1) in 1992.

Trainers

While Bob Baffert has three of the favorites this year and has trained five Derby-winners, not all stables run as smoothly.

Baffert is five for 29 in his career with 11 horses that ran in the money. He is one of just 24 trainers to enter at least eight horses in the Kentucky Derby. Of those 24, eleven are winless, including several competing this year.

Post Position

They’ve been using a starting gate at the Kentucky Derby since 1930. The regular gate loads 14 horses, and the auxiliary gate houses the six horses on the extreme outside. The only slot to never win is number 17, which is 0/39.

For years, the outside was considered bad, but since 1995, ten horses have won from gates number 15 or higher. There are eight slots that have not won in the past 30 years.

Color

Kentucky Derby winners that are some shade of brown win regularly. Gray horses on the other hand are a bit exotic.

Since 1930, an average of 1.2 entrants each year are gray or roan. However, recently that number has grown. The last three Derby’s have seen six grays run, but none have finished better than fourth.

Historically, grays have won at a nine-percent clip, a perfectly reasonable number, but gray’s are winless since 2005 (Giacomo), going 0/25 in that span.

The last gray to hit the board was Paddy O’Prado who finished third in 2010.

Favorites

While wonky results were the norm for a long period of time, recently the betting favorites at post time have been money. Six straight favorites have won the Kentucky Derby. The prior four winners were all 8/1 or longer, with I’ll Have Another at 15/1, Animal Kingdom at 20/1, and Mine that Bird 50/1.

Can the favorite win for a seventh straight year? There is no clear-cut horse this year, but each of Bob Baffert’s trio of contenders could go off as the favorite.

Weather

Louisville is a great town to have a good time, and regardless of weather the Kentucky Derby is a celebration. That said, it rains on Derby Day a lot. Over the last 10 Kentucky Derby’s, five have been on fast tracks (no water on the dirt), and five have had less than perfect conditions (sloppy, muddy, or damp in some way). Forecasts are calling for rain on Saturday, so who likes a damp surface.