March Madness Betting – (11) Zag Shooters Meet (10) ‘Cuse Zone

(11) Gonzaga Bulldogs (-4.5, 134.5 o/u) vs (10) Syracuse Orange

Both the Gonzaga Bulldogs (28-7, 16-15-2 ATS) and Syracuse Orange (19-13, 18-15 ATS) owe a huge debt to Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders cleared the path to the Elite Eight by bouncing Michigan State in the first round in arguably the biggest March Madness upset ever.

An ungrateful Syracuse demolished Middle Tennessee in the second round, setting up Friday’s Sweet 16 battle between the Zags and Orange at the United Center in Chicago (approx. 9:40 PM Eastern).

Both teams have cruised through the first two rounds of the tournament.

Gonzaga crushed no. 6 Seton Hall in round one (68-52) and then lay an even bigger beat-down on no. 3 Utah (82-59). Projected lottery pick Domantas Sabonis led the way against Seton Hall with a monster 21-point, 16-rebound double-double. Sabonis had another big game against the Utes (19 points, ten boards), as did senior guard Eric McCLellan (23 points on 9 of 12 shooting).

The team’s leading scorer, Kyle Wiltjer, looked off against the Pirates, going just 5 of 14 from the floor, but he rebounded in round two with 17 points on 7 of 10 shooting.

But it was the Bulldogs’ dogged defense that turned the games into routs. In the thin air of Denver, the Zags held two of the nation’s best players in check. Seton Hall’s Isaiah Whitehead was limited to ten points on an abysmal 4 of 24 from the floor. In round two, Utah’s Jakob Poeltl had just five points and, more alarmingly, attempted only five shots in 24 minutes. (The rarified air may have done more damage than Mark Few’s schemes.)

The Zags will look to bring the same defensive effort to the Syracuse game. The Orange are a defense-first team, but have four double-digit scorers that can all splash from deep. The squad is shooting nearly 40-percent from three through the first two rounds.

Like Wiltjer for Gonzaga, Syracuse’s leading scorer, Michael Gbinije, had a game to forget in round one (ten points on 3 of 11 from the floor). But freshman Malachi Richardson picked up the torch with 21 points, leading Syracuse to a 70-51 win over no. 7 Dayton.

Gbinije bounced back in round two (23 points on 10 of 14 shooting) during the 75-50 romp over the Blue Raiders.

Jim Boeheim’s not-quite-patented 2-3 zone wreaked havoc on both Orange opponents. Dayton shot just 32-percent from the field; Middle Tennessee failed to crack 30.

The Zags have historically been a deadly team from deep thanks to a string of superb guards coming through Spokane. This year’s team is a little different. The 6’10 Wiltjer is an assassin from beyond the arc (43-percent), but the rest of the team is thoroughly average.

How Gonzaga shoots from deep early should dictate the flow of this game. If McClellan and point guard Josh Perkins aren’t connecting, Gonzaga will have trouble stretching Boeheim’s zone, and that will mean fewer touches down low for Sabonis. And if Sabonis isn’t having his usual monster night in the post, Syracuse should be able to muster enough offense to not only cover but win straight-up.

The bright lights of the Sweet 16 have been known to throw off even the savviest shooters. Given that the Bulldog guards played a bit over their heads in the first two – and that the defense won’t have the helping hand of Denver’s thin air – I like Syracuse and the points.

Pick: Syracuse (+4.5). 

(Photo credit: SD Dirk (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/legalcode]. Photo has been cropped.)