MLB Futures – Free Agency Reshapes the 2016 Landscape
The hot stove league has heated up and doesn’t appear to be cooling down soon. Major League Baseball’s offseason is notorious for significant transactions and this year has been no exception. Most of the big-name free agents have found new homes but many are still on the market. Justin Upton, Chris Davis, and Yoenis Cespedes are the most intriguing names on the list of guys still bargaining their services.
Changing rosters mean changing odds. Additions by the Cubs and Red Sox have resulted in improved 2016 Word Series chances. Chicago addressed its defensive inefficiencies and frequent inability to make contact by signing Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward. The Cubs also steadied their pitching rotation by adding John Lackey. Meanwhile, new Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski made a quick splash by locking up a Cy Young candidate in David Price.
Most sportsbooks have the Cubs and Red Sox favored to win their respective leagues. They are certainly improved ball clubs but the top choice in each league is a bit of a stretch, particularly in the case of Boston.
The Dodgers, Nationals, and Twins all look to improve the old fashion way in 2016. Each has two preseason Rookie of the Year candidates. The Dodgers are also expected to have an active winter in the free agent and/or trade market now that Zack Greinke is Arizona bound.
Let’s take a look at the updated numbers. From MVP to best free agent pick-up, all the current 2016 numbers are listed below.
MLB 2016 Odds/Futures:
Odds to win the 2016 World Series:
- National League:
Washington Nationals: 10/1
Chicago Cubs: 12/1
Pittsburgh Pirates: 14/1
Los Angeles Dodgers: 15/1
New York Mets: 18/1
San Francisco Giants: 22/1
Arizona Diamondbacks: 30/1
St. Louis Cardinals: 35/1
- American League:
Houston Astros: 10/1
Kansas City Royals: 12/1
Texas Rangers: 15/1
Boston Red Sox: 16/1
Toronto Blue Jays: 20/1
Los Angeles Angels: 25/1
New York Yankees: 25/1
Minnesota Twins: 30/1
Odds of a Red Sox – Cubs World Series: 48/1
Odds to win the 2016 N.L. Cy Young:
Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers): 23/10
Madison Bumgarner (San Francisco Giants): 7/1
Zack Greinke (Arizona Diamondbacks): 9/1
Max Scherzer (Washington Nationals): 10/1
Jake Arrieta (Chicago Cubs): 12/1
Matt Harvey (New York Mets): 12/1
Odds to win the 2016 A.L. Cy Young:
Dallas Keuchel (Houston Astros): 6/1
David Price (Boston Red Sox): 7/1
Marco Estrada (Toronto Blue Jays): 11/1
Chris Archer (Tampa Rays): 12/1
Chris Sale (Chicago White Sox): 15/1
Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners): 18/1
Odds to win the 2016 N.L. MVP:
Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals): 5/1
Kris Bryant (Chicago Cubs): 8/1
Paul Goldschmidt (Arizona Diamondbacks): 10/1
Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates): 12/1
Buster Posey (San Francisco Giants): 18/1
Giancarlo Stanton (Miami Marlins): 20/1
Odds to win the 2016 A.L. MVP:
Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels): 3/1
Manny Machado (Baltimore Orioles): 8/1
Josh Donaldson (Toronto Blue Jays): 10/1
Nelson Cruz (Seattle Mariners): 12/1
Lorenzo Cain (Kansas City Royals): 15/1
Carlos Correa (Houston Astros): 18/1
Odds to win the 2016 N.L. Rookie of the Year:
Corey Seager (Los Angeles Dodgers): 5/2
Steven Matz (New York Mets): 5/1
Trea Turner (Washington Nationals): 12/1
Lucas Giolito (Washington Nationals): 15/1
Jesse Winker (Cincinnati Reds): 20/1
Julio Urias (Los Angeles Dodgers): 22/1
Odds to win the 2016 A.L. Rookie of the Year:
Byung Ho Park (Minnesota Twins): 4/1
Jose Berrios (Minnesota Twins): 7/1
Blake Snell (Tampa Rays): 9/1
Lewis Brinson (Texas Rangers): 12/1
Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): 15/1
Tyler Naquin (Cleveland Indians): 15/1
Odds on the best free agent signing (based on most improved WAR):
Jeff Samardzija (San Francisco Giants): 7/3
Johnny Cueto (San Francisco Giants): 4/1
Jordan Zimmerman (Detroit Tigers): 6/1
David Price (Boston Red Sox): 9/1
Ben Zobrist (Chicago Cubs): 9/1
Asdrubal Cabrera (New York Mets): 12/1
Jason Heyward (Chicago Cubs): 16/1
Zack Greinke (Arizona Diamondbacks): 30/1
John Lackey (Chicago Cubs): 30/1
Odds on the worst free agent signing (based on biggest decline in WAR):
John Lackey (Chicago Cubs): 5/1
Johnny Cueto (San Francisco Giants): 6/1
Zack Greinke (Arizona Diamondbacks): 6/1
Jayson Heyward (Chicago Cubs): 7/1
David Price (Boston Red Sox): 8/1
Jordan Zimmerman (Detroit Tigers): 10/1
Jeff Samardzija (San Francisco Giants): 14/1
Asdrubal Cabrera (New York Mets): 20/1
Ben Zobrist (Chicago Cubs): 25/1
Movement in World Series futures since the start of free agency:
Arizona Diamondbacks: up from 50/1 to 30/1
Boston Red Sox: up from 25/1 to 16/1
Chicago Cubs: up from 25/1 to 12/1
Detroit Tigers: up from 75/1 to 50/1
New York Yankees: unchanged (25/1)
San Francisco Giants: up from 30/1 to 22/1
Toronto Blue Jays: unchanged (20/1)
(Photo credit: Arturo Pardavila III (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/legalcode].)
