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DJ LeMahieu’s AL MVP Odds Best They’ve Been Since July; Still Trails Mike Trout

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in MLB Baseball

Updated Mar 28, 2020 · 1:52 PM PDT

Can DJ LaMahieu sneak up on Mike Trout and steal the AL MVP? Photo from @SportsGridUK (Twitter)
  • The AL MVP race behind Mike Trout continues to change
  • DJ LeMahieu has now moved into second ahead of Alex Bregman
  • Is there any value in the field? Is Trout worth betting anymore?

The AL MVP race continues to be Mike Trout against the world.

For all of 2019, Trout has paced his AL contemporaries in most categories. He’s having a huge year when it comes to power, and his numbers in most categories are up, putting him on pace to set new career highs.

That leaves us wondering: Is there any value to be had in the AL MVP race?

2019 AL MVP Odds

Player Team Odds
Mike Trout LA Angels -1000
DJ LeMahieu New York Yankees +700
Alex Bregman Houston Astros +1000
Rafael Devers Boston Red Sox +2000

*Odds taken 09/02/2019

If you’re looking at longevity, Houston’s Alex Bregman has done the best job of keeping up on our AL Odds Tracker.

At some sportsbooks, Bregman has actually seen a dramatic increase as things roll into September. When we last checked in, he sat at +2500. Now? +1000.

But the closest to Trout is DJ LeMahieu. And he didn’t even register in the odds on July 2nd. But since then, he’s consistently held on to second place.

Mike Trout vs DJ LeMahieu

Mike Trout
VS
DJ LeMahieu
.293 Average .335
43 Home Runs 24
101 RBI 90
.439 OBP .382
.642 SLG% .538
8.1 WAR 5.4

The reason why LeMahieu is second in the odds is pretty simple. He’s enjoying his best Major League season since 2016, and has set the table for the AL East leading Yankees at the leadoff spot since returning from his injury early in the year.

LeMahieu has already surpassed his career-high in homers by nine and RBI by almost 30. He’s also posted a career-high in slugging percentage and OPS.

But it still pales in comparison to Trout.

Mike Trout: 2019 vs Career Highs

Mike Trout
VS
DJ LeMahieu
.293 Average .326 (2012)
43 Home Runs 41 (2015)
101 RBI 111 (2014)
.439 OBP .460 (2018)
.642 SLG% .629 (2017)
8.1 WAR 10.5 (2X)

Trout is also on pace to set career highs in walks and OPS. One of the crazier stats, is that despite being the most dangerous hitter in baseball once again, he has only been intentionally walked just 13 times this year.

That’s 12 fewer than last year, when he was slightly less prolific power-wise.

Where Alex Bregman, Rafael Devers Stand

Player AVG HR RBI OBP SLG% WAR
Alex Bregman .290 32 94 .413 .565 6.5
Rafael Devers .321 28 104 .370 .577 4.8

Bregman and Devers both have different things going for them in when it comes to AL MVP voting.

For the Astros, Bregman has been a key bat. He’s got a shot at 40 homers and should eclipse 100 RBI. That would put him on par with Trout, LeMahieu and Devers.

He has a better WAR and OBP than Devers however, and leads LeMahieu in OBP as well as the other two categories.

Houston has also dominated the American League.

For Devers, his power numbers are on par with Trout. And he’s got him in batting average too. But like Trout, the team around him has struggled. And the two-time MVP has him in most other categories.

Mike Trout Has Run Away with AL MVP

When looking at the candidates, there’s not a lot of value anywhere.

While LeMahieu has better odds, I think Bregman ends up in second.

But neither will touch Trout. It’s one thing to say ‘this is just another great season from Trout’ and look elsewhere for an AL MVP but he’s an all-timer enjoying an all-time season. Unless you’ve got some serious money where you can make something off that -1000, just sit back and enjoy September.

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