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Astros vs Braves World Series Game 4 Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Oct 29, 2021 · 9:33 PM PDT

Travis d'Arnaud home celebration
Atlanta Braves' Travis d'Arnaud celebrates his home run with Dansby Swanson during the eighth inning in Game 3 of baseball's World Series between the Houston Astros and the Atlanta Braves Friday, Oct. 29, 2021, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
  • The Houston Astros visit the Atlanta Braves in Game 4 of the World Series on Saturday (October 30th, 8:09 pm ET)
  • Houston will give the ball to Zack Greinke (0-0, 7.71 ERA), while Atlanta is expected to throw a bullpen game
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

Game 1 of the World Series belonged to the Atlanta bats. In Game 2, Houston’s lineup responded. Game 3 however, was dominated by pitching.

Both the Astros and Braves pitchers pitched extremely well, but Atlanta’s arms were slightly better leading them to a 2-0 victory. The Braves now lead the best-of-seven series 2-1, with Game 4 set to go on Saturday (October 30th).

Astros vs Braves Game 4 Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Houston Astros +100 -1.5 (+164) O 8.5 (-110)
Atlanta Braves -118 +1.5 (-200) U 8.5 (-110)

Odds as of Oct. 30th at FanDuel.

Atlanta opened up as a -118 moneyline favorite, in a game that features a total of 8.5. First pitch is scheduled for 8:09 pm ET at Truist Park in Atlanta, with a cool and potentially rainy night on deck. The forecast currently calls for 54 degree night time temperatures, while the afternoon rain could bleed into the evening.

Probable Pitchers

Five Braves hurlers, led by rookie starter Ian Anderson, held the mighty Houston bats to just two hits in Game 3. Anderson didn’t allow a single hit in his 5 innings of work, striking out four, while walking three en route to victory.

Now short on starers due to Charlie Morton’s freak injury in Game 1, Atlanta will likely throw a bullpen game on Saturday. The strategy would work much better in an American League park where pitchers don’t have to hit, but as manager Brian Snitker lamented “we were kind of dealt a bad hand, but we’ll figure this out somehow.”

For what it’s worth, the Braves relievers have pitched very well so far this series, surrendering just three runs and 11 hits over 14.2 innings of work.

The Astros on the other hand, will counter with Zack Grienke. With ace Lance McCullers Jr. no longer on the active roster, Houston is thin at starter as well leaving manager Dusty Baker with few options.

Greinke will make his third appearance and second start of the postseason, looking to improve on a short outing last time out. The 37-year-old lasted just 1.1 innings in Game 4 of the ALCS, coughing up two runs and three walks to Boston.

Greinke has arguably had a hall of fame career, but his last handful of starts have not been pretty. Dating back to the regular season, he’s failed to make it past the 5th inning in four consecutive starts, coughing up 20 runs over 14.1 innings.

2021 Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Astros Batters Batting Average in World Series Braves Batters Batting Average vs Greinke
Jose Altuve .154 Ozzie Albies .111
Yordan Alvarez .125 Jorge Soler .333
Michael Brantley .385 Eddie Rosario .400
Alex Bregman .111 Dansby Swanson .444
Martin Maldonado .125 Adam Duvall .333
Carlos Correa .100 Freddie Freeman .200
Kyle Tucker .273 Travis d’Arnaud .429
Yuli Gurriel .273 Joc Pederson .300

He’s got a ton of history against this Braves lineup from his days in the NL with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, and a handful of Atlanta batters have had his number. Dansby Swanson, Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, Travis d’Arnaud, and Jorge Soler are hitting .333 or better against him in a minimum of five at-bats.

Astros vs Braves Pick

Houston’s lineup meanwhile suffered a power outage for the second time this series, and are not getting enough out of some of their most important bats. Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Carlos Correa are all batting .154 or less in the World Series and a date with a collection of Atlanta relievers isn’t necessarily a good thing.

As mentioned, the Braves’ bullpen has been dominant so far this series and were very sharp in the regular season as well. Atlanta relievers ranked top-six in the NL in ERA and WAR, and were top-four in strand rate.

Greinke on the other hand has given bettors no reason to trust him. He’s been awful in four straight starts, and his lousy history versus the Braves’ lineup makes Atlanta the Game 4 play.

Pick: Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-118)

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